July 16th, 2018 Commentary by Jason

Besides wheat, everything else traded both sides ahead of the morning break.  Beans set fresh contract lows again last night, but had nearly erased the overnight losses into the morning break. Monday price action has not been good in the past few weeks to ag commodities so we will see if today is any different. US weather still looks favorable to crop development and there’s nothing new on the trade war but there have been hints China is open to resuming talks. Even with US beans at a $1.60 per bushel discount to Brazilian beans, the differential still needs to move another 55-60 cents for PNW beans to make up for the 25% tariff to China. Sep corn’s contract low at $3.37 ¼ is first support, then $3.35 ¼. The first resistance is at $3.48, then $3.55. Dec corn’s contract low at $3.50 ¼ is the first support, then nothing until the $3.30’s. First resistance is at  $3.61, then $3.67 ½. Aug soybeans set another new contract low overnight at $8.10 ½, but air beneath it for support down to $7.76 from the continuous 2008 chart if we keep moving lower.  First resistance falls to $8.43, then $8.64 before the $8.79 ¾ – $8.80 ¾ area. Nov soybeans’ support is at the new contract low last night of $8.26 ¼, and nothing beneath it.  Short term resistance is at $8.59 ¼, then $8.80, then $9.00.

CHS reports net income of $229.3 million for the 3rd quarter of fiscal 2018

CHS income
CHS Inc., the nation’s leading farmer-owned cooperative and a global energy, grains and foods company, reported net income on July 11, 2018, of $229.3 million for the third quarter of its 2018 fiscal year (three-month period ended May 31, 2018), compared to a net loss of $45.2 million for the same time period a year ago.

Consolidated revenues for the third quarter of fiscal 2018 were $9.0 billion, up from $8.6 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2017. Pretax income was $289.4 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2018, compared to a loss of $209.2 million for the same period the prior fiscal year.

“Thanks to the hard work of many throughout CHS, we’ve made great strides this year in strengthening relationships, optimizing operations and improving results from our core businesses,” said CHS President and CEO Jay Debertin. “The steps we’ve taken will better position us to navigate the inevitable cycles in agriculture and energy. I am proud of our team and their dedication and commitment to operating with excellence.” (more…)

July 9th, 2018 Commentary by Jason

Beans were lower overnight, giving back a portion of Friday’s key reversal higher in “sell the rumor, buy the fact” trading. July 12th is the WASDE report, and the USDA has said they will take the trade tariffs into consideration on the balance sheets.  How high will the bean carryout rise? Corn gapped lower from Friday’s close overnight, beans traded both sides before selling off, and wheat was lower. There is some chatter that China’s government would reimburse the 25% tariff on imported US beans if they were bought for their state owned reserves, but no details and no confirmation. Also, hearing China bought 10-15 Brazilian bean cargoes last week, at $1.50 per bushel premium to US beans. US weather is warm and dry this week, then chances of rain. Drier forecast for Australia.  Russia and southern Ukraine need rain. Sep corn’s first support is at the contract low set a week ago at $3.46 ¾, with next support under that at $3.35 ¼. The first resistance is at $3.62 ¼, then at $3.64.  Dec corn’s first support is at the contract low at $3.58 ½, then into the $3.30’s. First resistance is at  $3.76 to  $3.80 ¼. Aug soybeans’ first support is the new contract low set Friday at $8.37, with nothing below that.  First resistance moves to $8.91 ¾, then $9.00. Nov soybeans’ set a new contract low Friday at $8.53 ¼, and nothing beneath it.  Resistance moves up to $9.00, then $9.08.

July 6th, 2018 Commentary by Christy

Good Friday Morning-  Grains were quiet to start. Guessing the trade already factored in this trade hostility and we are hopefully on the way up.  Thank goodness. Corn up 3, Beans are up 15.   It is official, the tariffs on $34 billion went into effect last night, and China retaliated with their own in $34 billion, including US beans.  Not a whole lot of fresh news of the tariff side.  Technicals are still what I would call sketchy.

December corn: first support at the contract low set Monday at $3.58 ½, then into the $3.30’s. First resistance at  the 10-day MA at $3.70, then $3.80 ¼.

November soybeans: set a new contract low again today at $8.53 ¼, and nothing beneath it. Resistance at $8.84 ¼, then $9.00.

Price changes from last Friday through Thursday’s close: CU down 7 ¼ cents, CZ down 6 ¾ cents, SQ and SX each down 24 ¼,

USDA won’t release plans to help US farmers hurt by trade disputes until Sept 2nd according to Ag Sec. Perdue.

UPDATE: 

President Trump has warned of more tariffs, maybe up to a total of $500 billion worth, another $16 billion is set to go into effect in August.  The best I can figure “sell the rumor buy the fact” type day.  US corn and beans are the cheapest in the world, hopefully that can attract some buyers and our hot and dry weather forecast might provide some support.

Corn followed beans up 8,  Beans up 38 to end the day.  Don’t forget WASDE report out July 12th.  Have a great weekend!

July 5th, 2018 Commentary by Christy

Hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July, it is my very favorite holiday.   The markets are delayed for the holiday today, opening up at 8:30 A.M.   Corn up 5, Beans down up a quarter of a cent.

Lets talk about the tariffs, tomorrow July 6th is the day.  At this point we have not heard if the US will actually implement or not.  We do have news from China that if the US does, it will too at the exact same time.  July 6th, will still be July 5th their time.  We have heard ramblings that China might exempt US beans from the tariff IF they are for government reserves.

We are still $1.60 per bushel cheaper than Brazilian beans…that won’t make up for a 25% import tariff.  10.565 was the high on Nov beans, May 29th.  Since then we have lost $1.92.  Setting a new contract low on Tuesday hopefully this is the bottom!

December corn: new contract low Monday at $3.58 ½, then into the $3.30’s. First resistance at  the 10-day MA at $3.71, then $3.83

November soybeans: set a new contract low at $8.63 Tuesday, air beneath it. Resistance at $8.89 ¾, then $9.00.

July 3rd, 2018 Commentary by Jason

Corn jumped higher overnight from Monday’s close and after double digit losses yesterday.  Beans traded both sides overnight in a relatively tight range while all wheats gapped higher from Monday’s close and huge losses, showing double digit gains into the break across all three wheats. Beans are struggling since they will bear the brunt if China’s tariffs are actually enacted on Friday.  No changes in US or world weather forecasts.  In the US, it returns to warm next week and Russia is still dry. US corn is competitive on the world scene and US beans are the cheapest to everyone but China. China continues to look for other sources of beans. It looks like NAFTA negotiations will speed up with a new chief negotiator from Mexico’s new government that was elected over the weekend.

Afternoon update:

Corn gapped higher from Monday’s close and extended gains after the break this morning.  Weather is generally good for corn, but lots of water in SW MN again.  We will likely see some concern over pollination weather coming up with calls for above normal temps and below normal precipitation for the next two weeks. Beans struggled again today after the break, inching closer at mid-morning to the June 19th spike lows, which were also contract lows. Decent weather and the looming tariffs with China keep buyers on the sidelines. Ag markets will be back open on Thursday at 8:30 am. Enjoy your 4th of July and be safe.

July 2nd, 2018 Commentary by Jason

Two-sided trade overnight on little news.  Corn and beans were lower into the break with wheat still a little higher. The July 6th trade tariff deadline is quickly approaching, keeping traders on edge in a short trading week. Above normal temps for the US this week, then cooler this weekend, then back to above normal temps next week.  Most of the weekend rain was in the western Corn Belt. Russia is still dry and Ukraine received some rain relief, but not enough to take away concerns.  Sep corn’s first support is at $3.54 ¼, then the contract low at $3.48 ¼, set June 19th, then down into the $3.30 area.  It’s first resistance is at the 10-day MA at $3.63 ¾, which was reached on Friday, but we didn’t close above, so leave it as resistance, then $3.71 ¾, which was last week’s high. Dec corn’s first support is at $3.66, then  the contract low at $3.60.  First resistance is at the 10-day MA at $3.75 ½, then $3.83 ½. Aug soybeans’ first support is the contract low at $8.47 ½, set June 19.  First resistance is at $8.84 ½, then $9.03, then $9.14. Nov soybeans’ contract low at $8.64 ½ will act as first support with resistance at $9.00 ½, then $9.20 ½.

Afeternoon update:

Corn tumbled to new contract lows near the close and bean prices closed in on the low we saw back on June 19th, as the July 6th tariff deadline approaches. Beans and wheat did trade both sides during the session, while corn stayed in the red all day. It seemed to be heavy fund selling today all around. US crops still looking good overall, despite the recent heat.  The heat will garner more attention as more corn hits pollination.

June 29th, 2018 Commentary by Christy

A lot going on today, it is first notice day for July futures, USDA Report day, Month end, Quarter end and the market seems to be up on modest volume.  Corn up 3, beans up 4.  I had a customer want to know how much corn has dropped since it’s high earlier this month.   The high was June 5th, at 4.27 DEC, and today it is 3.69, that is 58 cents.  Ouch.  I will post more after the report at 11 here are the trade estimates again.

Trade estimates are as follows:

Corn Acres- 88.56 ave guess,  March 2018 report # 88.026        2017 # 90.167        6-29-18 # 89.128

Bean Acres- 89.69 ave guess, March 2018 report # 89.982         2017 # 90.142       6-29-18 # 89.557

All Wheat Acres- 47. 102 ave guess, March 2018 report # 12.627   2017# 46.012    6-29-18  # 47.821

Corn STOX- 5.268 ave guess, March 2018 report # 8.888       2017 # 5.229              6-29-18 #  5.306

Bean STOX- 1.225 ave guess, March 2018 report #  2.107        2017 # .0966             6-29-18 #1.222

Wheat STOX- 1.091 ave guess, March 2018 report # 1.194       2017 #1.181                6-29-18 # 1.100

Market is the same as pre-report.  Corn up 6, Beans up 12,  Wheat up 20.       Thank goodness.

June 28th, 2018 Commentary by Christy

UPDATE:  Nothing confirmed yet, don’t get too excited. We are hearing some chatter about getting closer to a deal with China on excluding beans from tariffs.  Market seems to have muted this news despite rumors being pretty widespread.  Beans finished in the red -6 and corn -7.

REPORT DAY TOMORROW  11 A.M.

Grains are in the red this morning as the trade waits for June 1 stocks report and planted acreage report.

Other than that, traders are still uncertain about trade tariffs and we have had excellent weather.  Light showers covered our trade territory over the last week.  The weekly drought monitor showed improvement in Kansas and Oklahoma, and deterioration in Missouri and Texas.

4th of July trading hours:  Early close Tuesday, July 3 at 12:05 p.m. Reopen, Thursday July 5th at 8:30 am.

Trade estimates are as follows:

Corn Acres- 88.56 ave guess,  March 2018 report # 88.026        2017 # 90.167

Bean Acres- 89.69 ave guess, March 2018 report # 89.982         2017 # 90.142

All Wheat Acres- 47. 102 ave guess, March 2018 report # 12.627   2017# 46.012

Corn STOX- 5.268 ave guess, March 2018 report # 8.888       2017 # 5.229

Bean STOX- 1.225 ave guess, March 2018 report #  2.107        2017 # .0966

Wheat STOX- 1.091 ave guess, March 2018 report # 1.194       2017 #1.181

 

 

The difference between drift and volatilization

herbicide application
Getting the most out of an herbicide application not only includes maximizing efficacy, but also minimizing damage caused by herbicides. Being aware of what can go wrong and how to avoid it can lead to effective, on-target herbicide applications and help growers have a successful growing season – without the distress and loss caused by applications gone awry.

Two threats to herbicide applications are drift and volatilization. While they may seem similar, they are quite unique and require different attention to ensure that neither occur. (more…)

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