April 20th, 2018 Commentary by Christy

Good Morning- It’s all about weather and China (tariffs) today!

Markets are weak this morning.  Soybeans are concerned about China.  Which they do keep buying cargoes from Brazil.   Wheat is lower based on the forecast for rain.  They need rain in the areas where HRW is grown.  As much to an inch is predicted to fall.  Corn is just following the pack, with a forecast good for planting.

Basis levels are inching up, as farmers are busy in the field.

Technicals look like this:

May corn: resistance at $$3.83 ½, the 20-day MA, then $3.85.  Support at $3.76 ½, then $3.71.  Gapped lower overnight from Thursday’s close.

December corn: opened and closed at the same price yesterday, indicating a change.  Gapped lower overnight.  Resistance at $4.09, the high for the last 3 sessions, then at the double top at $4.10.  Short term support at $4.05, then $4.03 ½ to $4.00. CK/CN carry at 9 cents, back to its widest traded level.

 

May soybeans: resistance at $10.46, then $10.52 ½.  Support has fallen to the 100-day MA at $10.15 ¾.

November soybeans:  resistance at $10.45, then the contract high at $10.60, support at $10.32 ½, the 50-day MA.

SK/SN carry at 11 ¾ cents this morning.

 

 

April 19th Commentary by Christy

Good Thursday Morning-

Grains are relatively flat this morning, corn and beans both down less than a whole cent.  The weather is gloomy and the markets are quiet.  Most areas are still too wet to get in the field.  Now is a good time to review your offers, maybe put in some more.  May options expire at the close tomorrow.  Export sales report came out today, corn slightly higher, beans and wheat lower.   Soybean trade is still cautious about US/Chinese tensions.

The forecast holds the good news card, little to no chance of rain and lows in the 40’s instead of the 20’s.

Mid Morning update:  So how fast can we plant corn in one week??  Well here is your answer-in 2013, we planted 43%  or 41.83 million acres in one week.  In 2015, 36% that was 32.11 million acres in one week.   (Thanks to our friends at Advance Trading Inc for those numbers) I took a road trip down this weekend to Steeleville, IL (Yes- I am in the queen of hearts drawing for $$1.5 MILLION)  and they are wet in that neck of the woods.  Water standing everywhere! It will be a while before they are in the field.  Up here in Greene County we have a few fields that farmers would like to get into this afternoon, most are thinking tomorrow.  Some say you cannot start planting on a Friday.  I have also heard, you can’t plant corn until the leaves on hedge trees are as big as a squirrel’s ear.  Another said, if you can roll up a ball of dirt, drop it from waist high and it crumbles then its go time.  Do you follow and trusted advice?

May Corn- last trade at 3.82,  Resistance at 3.8475,  Support at 3.80

May Beans- Last trade at 10.41, Resistance at 10.49, Support at 10.36

 

April 18th, 2018 Commentary by Andrew

Overnight markets are higher this morning on light volume. Corn up 2 cents and beans up 6. Very little new fundamental news to report. It does appear we have a window for planting based on the current forecast. While it could be warmer for us we should be thankful we get a break from the rain. If we think IL weather is bad Kansas could be worse.  Yesterday, Dodge City, KS was within 4 degrees of a record minimum temperature of 24 and then set a record max temperature of 94 degrees. So, within 12 hours they had temperature of 28 degrees and then all the way to 98 degrees, WOW!!!

An uneventful day in the corn market for the most part today. The high and low on the day were only 3 cents apart. Corn closed up 2 cents on they day awaiting more news to drive it up or down. Beans leaked lower throughout the day ending down 4 cents on May beans but November beans ended up unchanged for the day.  Mid day weather forecasts continue to predict below normal temperatures in much of the central US next week. If this holds true it could result in the coldest April since 1907. The market is watching dryness in the Southern Half of the Brazil corn crop. If this persists it could turn into an issue.

April 17th, 2018 Commentary by Jason

Grain markets mixed to start off Tuesday morning with poor technical and a slow plant. Forecasts in the plains for wheat showing a little drier than yesterday. US corn planting at 3% versus 5% average.  The average corn planting for next week is 13%. Winter wheat conditions were up 1% in the good/excellent category at 31%.  Very poor/poor category went from 35% to 37%. December corn has shown a tendency in the last three years to move lower in late April/early May. China has put a temporary 178.6% deposit requirement on US sorghum imports in what it called a “temporary antidumping measure,” effective tomorrow.  A preliminary antidumping ruling showed US milo imports have damaged their domestic industry.  The US sold 4.76 mmt of sorghum to China last year.  China imported a total of 4.8 mmt sorghum last year.  China is our largest Asian buyer of sorghum.

May corn resistance falls to $3.89 ¼, the high both last Thursday and Friday with support still at $3.82. Dec corn resistance now seen at $4.11, then at the double top of $4.16 ½ with support at $4.05 ¾ – $4.03 ¾. May soybeans first resistance at last week’s $10.67 ¼ high, then at the contract high at $10.82 ½.  The first support was breached yesterday but held, short term support at $10.42 to $10.35 ¼. Nov soybeans resistance at the contract high at $10.60, support at the 10-day MA of $10.41 ½ was taken out yesterday, leaving next support at $10.34 ½, then $10.29.

Afternoon update:

Early gains didn’t hold well today as there was little fresh news to inspire fund buying.  May corn finished down 2 ¼ and Dec down 1 ¼.  Beans closed in the upper third of the day’s range up 4 nearby and 5 on Nov with July wheat up 2 ½. China’s new tariff on US sorghum lent pressure to the corn market.  It’s estimated 1.2 mmt of sorghum may have to find a new home. No many changes in the technicals today on a light volume day with little news to push the markets. It was nice to see some sunshine today and the forecasts showing little rain and 60+ temps next week.

April 16th, 2018 Commentary by Jason

Another wet cold day to start off the week but the Midwest does have a drier forecast for the next 10 days.  The Plains are showing rain for next weekend which seems to have wheat down this morning and pulling corn with it.  Corn and wheat were both down overnight with beans trading both sides.  The Ag markets have not reacted to the Syrian missile attacks and Brazilian corn is now cheaper than the US.  May corn resistance is at $3.92 1/2 with support at $3.82.  December corn resistance at $4.16 1/2 with supports around $4.05.  May soybean resistance at $10.67 1/4 and support at $10.47 1/4 – $10.42 1/4.  Nov resistance at the contract high of $10.60  with supports at $10.41 1/2 then $10.35 1/2.  Crop progress reports will be out this afternoon.

Afternoon Update:

Grains lower today with no fresh news to trade and improving weather forecasts for the next 2 weeks for planting.  Farmer selling was slow today and we saw slight improvements in old crop corn and bean basis.  May corn resistance falls to $3.89 ¼, the high both last Thursday and Friday with support still at $3.82. Dec corn resistance now seen at $4.11 ½, then at the double top of $4.16 ½. May soybeans resistance at last week’s $10.67 ¼ high, then at the contract high at $10.82 ½.  First support was breached today, putting next support at $10.42 ¼ to $10.35 ¼.  Nov soybeans resistance still at the contract high at $10.60, with support at the 10-day moving average of $10.41 ½ being taken out today, leaving next support at $10.34 ½, then $10.29.  I think we are all ready for some warmer weather after today.

 

April 13th, 2018 Commentary by Christy

 

Good Morning- It is Friday the 13th.  Reason to be extra careful today!

Beans just keep climbing, up 2 at the coffee break, corn down a quarter of a cent.  Last night, corn finished up 1, beans down 13, but basis took a nose dive.  Corn losing about 3 cents across the board and cash beans losing 10 cents.   Planters are rolling, anhydrous is going on, things are really starting to move.  Remember, planting progress reports are out on Monday evenings at 3:00 after the close.   The overnight market usually sees the reaction to this report.  Offers will be key!

Here are the Technicals:

May corn: resistance at the double top of 3.92 ½, support at $3.82.

December corn: resistance at the double top of $4.16 ½, support at $4.05 ¾ – $4.03 ¾.

CK/CN carry at 8 ½ cents.  It’s widest traded level has been 9 cents, last week.

 

May soybeans: resistance at the contract high at $10.82 ½, support $10.47 ¼ – $10.42 ¼.

November soybeans:  resistance at the contract high at $10.60, support at $10.41 ½, then $10.35 ½.

SK/SN carry at 10 ¾ cents.

 

 

 

April 12, 2018 Commentary by Christy

Hello Spring!

The trade needs a little coffee this morning, slightly lower on very light volume.  Maybe it played too hard in the lovely weather yesterday.  Corn -1.75, Beans +2, Wheat -9.75.  Seems like that quiet time has hit when farmers head to the field.  Before you get too busy, leave offers with your grain buyer.  We have a mix of risky market movers waiting on the sidelines- Syria, Russia, China, weather in Brazil on top of our planting progress.  Have your orders in place so you can concentrate on planting.   Speaking of that, any planters rolling yet?  I have heard of 1 in Greene Co, one in the Mississippi river bottom, a few more will start today.  Please be careful!

11:00 Update:  Strong export sales resurrected beans, they are up .10 cents.  Pres Trump promises “agriculture will be taken care of 100%” eases some producers.  We are hearing a draft of the farm bill will be released today.  And twitter is showing pictures of planters rolling in Iowa today.

 

April 11, 2018 Commentary by Andrew

Markets are quiet this morning after an uneventful USDA report yesterday. Corn is trading unchanged, beans are up 5 to 7 and wheat down 4. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts are calling for below average temps as well as chances for above average precipitation across the corn belt. This should lend some support to the markets although it is a little early to get too concerned about it.

10:45 AM Not much change in the market this morning. Corn is leaking lower trading down 1 to 2 cents. Beans are trading 4 to 5 cent higher.  Locally at the river barge freight continues to firm which has resulted in basis a few cents weaker on corn and beans.

The grain markets leaked lower on the close this afternoon. Corn and beans both ended down 2 cents on the day. Corn drifted lower following the wheat market which was down 4 cents. Nothing new to feed the bulls to make things go higher so an uneventful trade today.  Barge freight nearby is a real problem causing nearby corn basis down 5 from yesterday and beans down 8 cents. Overall, a quiet day on the grain trade.

 

April 10th, 2018 Commentary by Jason Hayes

On the overnight and early in the day trade, soybeans continue to lead the market. Today is report day with both the USDA April WASDE and CONAB’s production report. South America production numbers will be important. Northern and central corn belt is still looking wet and cold except for a couple days this week but then back to cooler temps.  More to come after the reports in my afternoon commentary.

Afternoon Update:

Report came out today and was neutral corn, slightly bullish beans, and bearish wheat. It confirmed plenty of corn supplies around the world, lowered US bean carryout and Argentina production. Wheat carryout was higher than expected for the US and the world. China’s President also said they would open up their economy and cut tariffs which brought in some extra buying in beans. At the end of the day May corn was down 1 ½ Dec down ¾, May beans up 3 with Nov beans up 4 ¾, and July wheat coming back late in the session to close up 2 ½. Traders are still going to talk some about slow planting of corn and spring wheat.

April 9th, 2018 Commentary by Jason Hayes

Good morning after an unusually cold and  snow covered April Sunday.  We start off this week with a rebound higher overnight with beans recovering all of last week’s losses.  Corn, beans, and wheat jumped higher overnight.  US planting is starting to get some attention.  Cold, snowy, wet weather in the Midwest isn’t what we need to get corn in the ground, but forecasts are warmer and drier later this week.  Yesterday, the Trump administration eased their talk about Chinese tariffs.  They indicated there is time to work out a deal and avoid a trade war.  Press Secretary Sanders said the US would like to have formal negotiations with China over their trade practices.  The first official corn planting report should be released this afternoon at 3:00 pm.

May corn support at $3.69 ¼, resistance at last week’s $3.92 ½ high.  Short term support holding at the 10-day MA at $3.82, then $3.78.  Many feel December corn needs to stay above $4.00 as not to lose more acreage.  Support at $4.05 ½ and $4.00, then $3.95 ¼ to $3.92.  The 100-day MA is $3.92. Resistance at $4.12 ½ to $4.16.  May soybeans had a key reversal higher Friday.  Short term support at $10.30, then at the 200-day MA at $10.03, then $9.79 ¼.  Wednesday’s low was $9.83 ½.  Resistance at $10.37 ¼ was taken out overnight, leaving $10.60 ½, last Monday’s high, as the next upside target. November soybeans support at 10.08 then 9.95.  Resistance at $10.45 ¾ was taken out overnight.  Last week’s high was Monday at $10.60 and is next resistance.

Afternoon Update:

Adverse US winter wheat weather and a softening of trade war talk sparked higher prices across the board today.  It still looks like we won’t see an early plant on corn and beans this year but it is too early to call it late.  May and Dec corn both closed up 2 1/4 with May beans closing up 13 1/4 and Nov up 10.  Support and resistance levels still the same as this morning.  Winter wheat crop conditions just came out down 2% on the good and excellent and Corn planting came out at 2% complete compared to last year as of April 9th, at 3% complete.

 

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