September 18th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and soybeans are lower while wheat futures are higher. Increasing harvest pressure and tariffs against China are weighing on prices while wheat prices are seeing support. Spring wheat harvest is nearly complete, Australia continues to have issues and winter wheat plantings are near average. Wheat prices are seeing support after the recent sell.

You can find the USDA Crop progress % and conditions as of Sept 17 by clicking on this link –  http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-09-17-2018.pdf

Corn: Z/H 12 carry.
Soybeans: X/H 27 carry.

September 17th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Corn and soybeans are lower while wheat markets are higher in early trade. Harvest pressure and trade concerns are weighting on soybeans and corn while wheat markets are stabilizing after the recent sell off. It was a good weather harvest weekend across the Midwest, so farmers were busy doing what they do at this time of year. Early variety beans seeing some harvest activity this weekend.  Good yield reports showing up so far.  Nov beans gapped lower overnight.  President Donald Trump may announce as early as today on tariffs of 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as early as today. That is below the 25% tariffs initially thought.

Corn: Z/H 12 ¼ carry.
Soybeans:X/H 26 ¾ carry.

September 14th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! The corn market sees a small bounce to prices after setting new contract lows for many contracts yesterday. CZ breached the $3.50 level yesterday but has spent the overnight session trading above that level. Overnight saw relatively light trade volumes. Larger than expected US yield estimate, combined with signs that maybe demand is slowing, keeps upside momentum muted. The soybean market is higher in overnight trading, and remains well off the recent contract lows. The wheat market trades higher and continues to be choppy with not much fresh news to trade. US weather appears favorable for harvest with many areas expected to be warm and dry, aiding in field drydown.

 

 

 

September 13th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! The corn market sees relatively light overnight trade volumes, trying to rebound after losses yesterday caused by the surprisingly big USDA yield projection.  As expected the US yield was the primary focus on yesterday’s report with 181.3 bpa estimated. Record ear weights and ear counts were noted. The soybean market is mostly lower in overnight trading. There is a senate ag hear today with payment rates for crops likely to be discussed. Hurricane Florence, now a category 2, appears headed to the coast of North/South Carolina with landfall expected late today or early tomorrow.

Corn: Z/H 12 ¼ carry
Soybeans: X/H 26 ¼ carry

 

September 12th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Wednesday, we’re half way to the weekend! Corn and soybean markets are higher while wheat markets are rebounding ahead of this morning’s USDA reports. November soybeans hit a new contract low of 825 ½ overnight. The National Weather Service is warning of potential catastrophic flash flooding when Hurricane Florence makes landfall late Thursday or Friday.

Check out this link to see the USDA Crop progress % and conditions as of Sept 9   http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-09-11-2018.pdf

Spreads:
Corn
: Z/H 11 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: X/H 26 ¼ carry.

 

September 11th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and wheat are lower while soybean markets are mixed ahead of this morning crop progress and tomorrows monthly USDA reports. Yesterday’s crop progress report will be issued this morning after a technical delay. The rainy week likely did not yield a normal seasonal increase in harvest, but the immediate forecast is better in that regard. Hurricane Florence remains a formidable threat, but its path is unclear, which will determine where damage and flooding occur. The highest risk for soybeans is across North Carolina starting ThursdayFriday

Corn: Z/H 11 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: X/H 26 ¼ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Nothing to write home about- corn was stagnant today, beans continue to be bearish, and wheat traded lower.

 

September 10th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! After a lower start, ags came back to trade both sides overnight.  Going into the break, corn was slightly lower, but wheat and beans were higher. After heavy rains in parts of the Midwest over the weekend, this week looks warmer and drier. Hurricane Florence is headed to the eastern seaboard.

December corn: short term support at the 10-day MA at $3.62 ½, then at last week’s low at $3.55 ¼.  Resistance at $3.68 – $3.69 ¾ – $3.70 ½.
November soybeans: support at last week’s low at $8.34 ¾, then $8.26 ¼, the contract low.  Next resistance is at $8.51 ½, then $8.58 ½.

 Afternoon Update:
Corn was a non-event today, staying near unchanged for most of the session. Beans were higher on China’s freeze scare that rallied China’s soy complex overnight. Beans closed mid-range. US corn and bean harvest progress will pick up this week with better weather.

 

September 7th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! Mostly lower overnight trade on a lack of market moving news. Look for a choppy corn and bean market into the weekend.  Wheat should continue to struggle. Harvest delaying rain will hit the southern Midwest this weekend.  Next week looks warmer and drier for the Corn Belt harvest to progress.

December corn: short term support at the 10-day MA at $3.61 ¾, then at last week’s low at $3.55 ¼. Resistance at $3.68 ½ – $3.69 ¾ – $3.70 ½.
November soybeans: support at $8.26 ¼, the contract low.  Short term resistance at the 10-day MA at $8.42 ¼, then $8.51 ½.

Afternoon Update
 Corn and beans were choppy/sideways today, but wheat just couldn’t get any wheels under it and traded in the red.  Wheat made new lows for the move today in a narrow range session.  Corn and beans may be biding time ahead of next Wednesday’s USDA report, but they closed on a decent note today.  Weekend moisture in the Corn Belt will be good for winter wheat seeding.

 

September 6th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Another night of two sided trading across the board.  Wheat and corn are leaning lower into the break, while beans are higher. Choppy trade ahead as market weighs a big crop against good demand. More rain is expected to come through parts of the Upper Midwest the rest of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be moderate. Hurricane Florence is packing winds near 115 miles per hour and is making her move toward the US East Coast.

December corn: support at last week’s low at $3.55 ¼, resistance at $3.69 ¾ to $3.70 ½.
November soybeans: support at $8.26 ¼, the contract low.  First resistance at the 10-day MA at $8.50, then $8.72 ¾.

Afternoon Update
Slow, choppy day in corn and beans. Nothing really fresh in the news to drive us one way or the other. A yawner. Wheat was under selling pressure throughout the session and traded to their lowest levels since July. Poor close in wheats.

 

September 5th, 2018 Grain Commentary by Andrew

Grains mostly lower to start today with corn down 1, beans down 2 and wheat unchanged. Locally harvest activity is picking up with some corn and beans starting to get harvested. Early indications are very good yields on both. Big rains are foretasted thru the weekend which look to put a stop to any harvest activity. NAFTA talks between the US and Canada continue.  The US wants extra access to Canada’s dairy market and to limit access to government procurement.  Canada wants an agreement on trade dispute panels and an exemption for Canadian cultural industries.

December corn: support at last week’s low at $3.55 ¼, resistance at $3.70 ½.  The overnight high was $3.69.

November soybeans: support at $8.26 ¼, the contract low.  First resistance at the 10-day MA at $8.50, then $8.72 ¾.  The overnight high was 849 ¼.

Corn and beans stayed under pressure today, and wheat succumbed to selling shortly after the break. Corn down 3, beans down 6 and wheat down 9. Nothing friendly for beans as trade tariffs and a good finish to the crop overhang the market. Drier weather is in the forecast for next week, which will see corn and bean harvest pick up after the rain event moves thru.

 

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