May 1, 2019 Grain Commentary

Corn is slightly higher this morning up 1 to 2 cents while beans are under pressure down 7 to 9 cents. Locally heavy rain reported in the area any where from 2 to 3.5 inches. The Mississippi River is expected to rise to levels again that could shut down barge loading in STL for the first part of next week. Basis is firm for FH May delivery due to the Upper Miss and the IL River closures due to high water. They are expected to be down even longer.

After the slow start corn and beans both recovered. Corn ended the day up 6 while beans closed down a couple.

Corn is looking better technically as late planting ideas gather steam.  July corn poked its head above the 20-day MA for the first time since March 29th and closed near the day’s high.  Spreads narrowed.

Beans bear the brunt of weather delayed planting – less corn acres usually means a few more bean acres, which we don’t need.  Beans finally got some spillover support from corn and wheat and were able to close in the middle of the day’s range.

September 20th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Friday. It’s been a long, slow week. Corn and soybean prices are lower while wheat futures are mixed early Friday. Look for sideways choppy trade into the weekend.

Weather is still the focus for crops and right now it looks favorable into the first week of October. The 16-30 day forecast calls for warmer temps and near normal rainfall. Weekend rain may delay planned harvest early next week.

Deputy level talks between the US and China continue in Washington today. Chinese officials will visit Bozeman, Montana and Omaha, NE next week to tour meat plants and a few soybean areas.

The US will exempt over 400 Chinese products from tariffs, including Christmas lights, plastic straws, and printed circuit boards. These items were approved from over 1,100 exclusion requests.

Have a great and safe weekend!

Dec/Mar: Corn: 11 ½ carry
Nov/Jan spread: Soybeans: 13 ¼ carry.

CZ short term support at 365 ¼, then 361 ½, better support at 352 ¼ – 353 ¼; resistance at 374 ¾, then 378-380.  
SX support at 884 (50-day MA), 879, then 857 ¾; first resistance at 900 on a closing basis, then 915.

September 19th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and soybeans and trading lower while wheat markets are mixed in early trade. Doesn’t look the trade trend we’ve been stuck in all week is going anywhere soon.. Thin and choppy trading will continue until interest in putting some risk back in to the market takes off.

Via the latest GFS and EU models, US forecasts will remain favorable with no frost threat into the first week of October. This will be the help late planted crops need to catch up and try to reach full maturity. Chatter of lost crops but will be some time before we know for sure.

President Trump is meeting with senators from refining states to discuss the RFS as the President is under pressure from corn belt senators to help the farm community.

The South China Post is reporting that the US and China are close to agreeing on an interim trade deal as soon as next month, traders will be keeping a close eye on this. Should be interesting to see what comes out of the meetings and how the market responds.

Have a great day and as harvest begins, remember to safety a priority!

Dec/Mar: Corn: 11 1/4 carry
Nov/Jan spread: Soybeans: 13 3/4 carry.

September 18th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn softened in overnight trading as we head towards the donut break. 1 penny lower to start. Soybeans are both sides of unchanged with very little fresh news in the market this morning. Any additional flash sales to China would be friendly as they have already exceed what traders thought they would buy as a goodwill gesture.

The threat of frost in the US continues to wane with warm temps in the forecast through the end of the month.

The USDA has paid $4.07 billion of its latest round of compensations for farmers suffering from the trade war with China as of Monday. Trade officials from China will meet this week in Washington with their US counterparts.

Have a  great and safe day!

Dec/Mar: Corn: 12 carry
Nov/Jan spread: Soybeans: 13 3/4 carry

CZ short term support at 361 ½, better support at 352 ¼ – 353 ¼, then 350; resistance at 374 ¾, then 378-380.
SX support at 884 ½ (50-day MA), 872, then 857 ¾; first resistance at 900 on a closing basis, then 915.

September 17th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Tuesday. Corn conditions were unchanged, but apparently the market wanted a decline so better conditions means a 4 cent loss overnight. Soybeans are getting hit hard despite a drop in conditions as expected. The crude oil rally yesterday appears over so beans getting hurt. Down 8 in the overnight.

No frost risks are seen on the extended forecasts leaving farmers hopeful that the late planted crops will make it to full maturity.

Corn harvest is underway, and the crop is 4% complete in the first tally of the season. The 5 year average is 7%.

Not much else in the headlines for this morning, have a great and safe day!

Corn: Z/H 12 ¼ carry, Z/N 28 carry
Beans: X/F 13 ¾ carry, X/N 46 carry

Afternoon Update:
Weaker today across the board as weather is non-threatening and despite the third bean sale in a row to China. US temps stay above normal this week and next week. Showers are possible throughout the next two weeks.

September 16th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! No big grain headlines to start the week so it will be important for Dec corn to stay above the 20 day moving average at 366. Corn is unchanged to start. Soybeans are the only commodity starting off weaker. Will beans be able to continue last week’s rally? Beans are 3 cents lower to start.

Overall weather seems non threatening as temps remain above normal in the 8-14 day forecast, the risk of an early season ending frost event slides basically to October.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a drone attack on the world’s largest oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia. It knocked out half of the supplies from the largest exporter of oil in the world. 

Have a great and safe day!

Corn: Z/H 12 ½ carry, Z/N 28 carry
Beans: X/F 13 ½ carry, X/N 45 ¼ carry

September 13th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Two-sided trade, but mostly higher, overnight extended Thursday’s rally. November soybeans traded to their highest level since July 31.

It was rumored China bought an estimated 10-15 cargoes of US soybeans. This is the kind of news the market has long been waiting for. China will exempt some ag products, including soybeans and pork, from new/additional punitive tariffs, according to the Xinhua News.

Warmer, drier weather across the Midwest next week, which the crop needs.

After the close yesterday, the FSA released certified acres as of Sept. 4, which were little changed from August: Corn planted 86.821 million acres, prevent plant 11.414 million acres Soybeans planted 74.896 million acres, prevent plant 4.46 million acres.

Have a great and safe weekend!

Corn: 12 1/4 carry
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 13 1/2 carry

Afternoon Update:
Spillover strength from yesterday and fund short covering lent early support across the board, but that strength waned as the day advanced. November soybeans did see a spurt higher when they broke through $9.00, but they couldn’t maintain the momentum and closed at 898 ¾. This was the first time SX traded above $9 since July 31. Overall, a relatively quiet day. USDA this morning announced the sale of 204 tmt of US soybeans to China for this marketing year.

September 11th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Take a moment this morning to remember those lost on this day in 2001.

Corn and soybeans traded both sides overnight, but were weaker at the break. Wheats traded lower overnight and were in the red at the break.

Warmer temps in the forecast for the Midwest through next week, lowering threats of frost. However, cooler temps show back up on the 11-15 day forecast map, so watch those forecasts.

China has waived the 25% tariff on 16 US products beginning Sept. 17 and lasting for a year, but no exemptions were made for major ag products or meat. Products included shrimp, fish meal, and cancer treatment drugs.

September WASDE report will be released tomorrow at 11:00 am CT.

Have a great and safe day!

Dec/Mar: Corn: 12 3/4 carry. 
Nov/Jan spread: Soybeans: 13 1/2 carry.

Afternoon Update:
Slow, choppy trade was seen as traders anxiously await the tomorrows USDA report.

September 10th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybean and wheat markets are higher this morning on delayed progress and weakening corn conditions. 

The Good/Excellent rating for corn declined 3 points to 55% this past week. Illinois dropped 8 points to 38% G/E.11% of the crop is estimated to be mature, compared to the 5 year average of 24%. Percent harvested will be included in next week’s report. Soybeans were 55% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week. 92% are setting pods compared to the 99% average for this date. The “Dropping Leaves” estimate will be included next week.

USDA announced details yesterday of their disaster aid program (WHIP+) covering various disasters that have occurred over the last two years. Signup begins September 11th.

Not much else for the time being- have a great and safe day!

Dec/Mar Spread:
Corn: 12 3/4 carry.
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 14 carry.

Afternoon Update:
Corn, soybean and wheat markets closed higher on weak conditions, progress and Fund short covering. Reports China may purchases more U.S. ag goods and improving trade relations aided prices in slow trade.

September 9th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Two-sided trading overnight in everything but KC wheat. Seeing red across the board at the break. Look for an easing board early and we’ll see if anything new comes out.

There were showers across the northern states over weekend. Calm about everywhere else. Some rain is in the forecast this week for the northern Midwest but with warmer temperatures. Overall US weather remains mostly favorable.

A meeting last Friday between Pres. Trump and some of his top officials sidelined a final deal on a biofuels package. Farm and biofuel groups, as well as some farm state lawmakers, opposed the proposed plan.

September WASDE report will be released this Thursday at 11:00 am CT.

Have a great day! Be careful out there  

Corn: Z/H 12 ¾ carry
Beans: X/F 14 carry

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