November 20th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybean and wheat markets are slightly higher to start the day. The South China Morning Post is reporting a change trade talks scheduled in Washington will be moved to Buenos Aires after the G20 meeting. US corn harvest progress was reported 90% complete vs 84% last week.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 10 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: F/H 13 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi in Buenos Aires on November 30th. Time for lots of rhetoric between now and then. Corn and wheat chopped around in narrow ranges, unable to gain traction to follow the beans higher.

Reminder: Holiday week! Thanksgiving holiday market hours: the grain markets trade normal hours on Wednesday, November 21st, then they don’t reopen until Friday, November 23 at 8:30 am CT. On Friday, November 23 the CME closes at 12:05 pm

 

November 16th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday!! The weekly changes show we are moving into the holiday mode which consists of choppy, quiet trade. China/U.S. trade war update: Wilbur Ross (United States Secretary of Commerce) said in an interview, “We certainly won’t have a full formal deal by January. Impossible.” Brazil and Argentina continue to ship beans to China. Have a great and safe weekend!

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 10 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: F/H 13 ½ carry.

Afternoon Update:
We live in anticipation of the next tweet. It’s that kind of world. A tweet at 11:30 this morning brought beans back into the black and cut corn losses. President Trump said “China wants to make a deal on trade, but it is not acceptable yet. The US may not have to impose further tariffs on China.

November 15th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! China gave a written response to US trade demands, causing China’s stock market and our beans to bounce. No word on whether the response is enough to prevent the US from imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods. It may be enough for a framework agreement to be reached and prevent new tariffs. Some chatter that what China offered wasn’t that much different from what they said in May. Crummy US weather moving in was also deemed supportive to corn and beans still in the field.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: F/H 13 ¼ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Markets were pretty dull after the morning coffee break. January beans never tested the 897 ½ overnight high. Not a stellar close in beans as the market absorbed the Chinese response to the US on tariffs ahead of the meeting later this month. The bullish NOPA Crush report did little to inspire fresh buying.

November 13th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and wheat are lower and soybeans are higher early Tuesday. Corn harvest 85% complete. US/China trade negotiations and the Trump / Xi meeting is scheduled at the end of the month. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has resumed discussions with the Chinese.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: X/F 11 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
The market was less than thrilling today with corn and beans both down a nickle and wheat falling 12 cents on the day.

 

November 12th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Export Inspections and Crop progress will be delayed until tomorrow. Corn and wheat markets are higher while soybeans are in negative territory early Monday.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 carry.
Soybeans: X/F 11 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Not much for news today. No government reports today, and others later this week will be delayed a day, due to today’s Veterans Day holiday. Thank you to all who have served and their families.

November 9th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Beans are setting up for a fifth straight day of losses, the longest losing streak since July. Corn posted a key reversal higher yesterday, but was unable to follow through overnight. Dry weather and cold temps in the Corn Belt next week should allow for harvest to get cleaned up. Monday is Veterans Day. Thank you to all who have served and are serving to protect our country and freedoms. Grain markets are open Monday, but there are no government reports.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ½ carry.
Soybeans: X/F 11 ½ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Soybeans diverged from corn and wheat today, with beans managing to move higher. The firmer dollar seemed to weigh on corn and wheat. US weather should allow for HRW planting. South American weather not a concern at this time. Very quiet in the country today.

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filling diesel engine oil jugs

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November 8th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

It’s all about the USDA numbers today. Weekly export sales were mostly a yawner. Two-sided trading was seen overnight, with everything in the black at the break. Basis levels continue to firm, rail and barge freight continues to fall. Hearing chatter that some ethanol plants will begin to slow down due to negative margins.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ½ carry.
Soybeans: X/F 11 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Today’s price action shut off any small trickle of farmer sales that were occurring. The huge change in world corn ending stocks was definitely the surprise today. The increase in world corn stocks came from China with their stocks going from 58.5 mmt last month to 207.5 mmt this month. Not expecting corn to plummet from here, but more likely we consolidate. The bean numbers were bearish on their face and we could continue to see the lower trend be extended, barring any political change. Prices rebounded from their lows into positive territory in post-report trading as selling dried up. What this means for tomorrow, remains unseen.

November 7th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Mixed markets at the break with corn easier, beans steady, and wheats mixed. No one is expecting much of anything today as we head into tomorrow’s reports. However, the US dollar is sharply lower today, which is usually supportive to grain. Still look for a choppy session. In increase in China’s corn production forecast may limit the upside and CZ has struggled to get past 375.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: X/F 12 ¼ carry.

Afternoon Update:
December corn traded from 371 ½ – 373 after the morning break to the close, boring with a mid-range close. January soybeans struggled to minimize its losses today, despite the weaker US dollar. It continues to bounce off its 100-day moving average. Nothing for fresh news during the session with traders eyeing tomorrow’s USDA report for some sort of direction.

November 6th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn lower, wheat is mixed and soybeans are higher. Look for slow, choppy two sided trade Tuesday. Cold and precipitation are seen across many of the major growing areas causing late harvest delays. A Chinese official indicated in a Bloomberg interview that China wants to work solutions on trade acceptable to both sides. South American weather remains mostly favorable for early crop development and planting.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ¾ carry
Soybeans: X/F 12 ½ carry

Afternoon Update:
Another day of watching paint dry ahead of today’s election results (not sure that they will directly affect grain) and Thursday’s WASDE report. Corn traded a small 2 ½ cent range, closing down ¾ cents. CZ still not able to break through 375. Beans were on the weaker side, but closed decently off the daily low. SF settled 1 ½ cents lower, but 6 cents off the low. Still feels weak.

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