Posts By: Andrew Paluska

Grain Commentary

January 23

CORN UP 4!  USDA announced a sale this morning of 141 tmt of old crop corn to unknown, 114.224 tmt of old crop corn to Guatemala and 29.724 tmt of new crop corn to Guatemala.  Support at the 50 Day MA at 3.835, we blew through resistance at 3.92 and bumped against the next level at 3.9375 already today.  Lots of farmers selling today, would not be a bad time to make a sale or price a few bushels on a basis contract. 

Beans… que the sad music.  Down again, 4 today-   bears seem to be watching bean harvest in Brazil.  No new bean sales to China to help stop the decline, they have closed down 4 out of the 5 last sessions (total -.15c in the last week).  Support at 9.03 and resistance at 9.21.  China’s Lunar New Year begins this Saturday, usually not a whole lot of news from them during this time.  New crop beans are at 9.45, not a bad place to start if you don’t have any on the books yet. 

Rumors flying about a trade deal with India, Pres. Trump is to visit India in February.  Little details lead to possibly a “mini deal” being revealed on the trip if anything at all.

Grain Commentary

Jan 17th Markets have been on a wild ride the last few days. Corn down 12 on Thursday and now up 13 here on Friday. Beans have also erased on gains trading up 7 cents. Funds seem to be covering short positions after they bought the rumor and sold the fact on the China Phase 1 deal.

May 1, 2019 Grain Commentary

Corn is slightly higher this morning up 1 to 2 cents while beans are under pressure down 7 to 9 cents. Locally heavy rain reported in the area any where from 2 to 3.5 inches. The Mississippi River is expected to rise to levels again that could shut down barge loading in STL for the first part of next week. Basis is firm for FH May delivery due to the Upper Miss and the IL River closures due to high water. They are expected to be down even longer.

After the slow start corn and beans both recovered. Corn ended the day up 6 while beans closed down a couple.

Corn is looking better technically as late planting ideas gather steam.  July corn poked its head above the 20-day MA for the first time since March 29th and closed near the day’s high.  Spreads narrowed.

Beans bear the brunt of weather delayed planting – less corn acres usually means a few more bean acres, which we don’t need.  Beans finally got some spillover support from corn and wheat and were able to close in the middle of the day’s range.

September 5th, 2018 Grain Commentary by Andrew

Grains mostly lower to start today with corn down 1, beans down 2 and wheat unchanged. Locally harvest activity is picking up with some corn and beans starting to get harvested. Early indications are very good yields on both. Big rains are foretasted thru the weekend which look to put a stop to any harvest activity. NAFTA talks between the US and Canada continue.  The US wants extra access to Canada’s dairy market and to limit access to government procurement.  Canada wants an agreement on trade dispute panels and an exemption for Canadian cultural industries.

December corn: support at last week’s low at $3.55 ¼, resistance at $3.70 ½.  The overnight high was $3.69.

November soybeans: support at $8.26 ¼, the contract low.  First resistance at the 10-day MA at $8.50, then $8.72 ¾.  The overnight high was 849 ¼.

Corn and beans stayed under pressure today, and wheat succumbed to selling shortly after the break. Corn down 3, beans down 6 and wheat down 9. Nothing friendly for beans as trade tariffs and a good finish to the crop overhang the market. Drier weather is in the forecast for next week, which will see corn and bean harvest pick up after the rain event moves thru.

 

August 28th, 2018 Grain Commentary by Andrew

Good Morning on this rainy start to a Wednesday. It appears most of south central IL received half inch to an inch of rain. It seems our weather pattern has turned wetter, let’s hope this does not continue for fall harvest. Some reports of corn harvest beginning around the area in a few isolated spots. Early yield indications are very good with corn moisture over 25% on even the early planted corn. Grain markets are stronger this morning after a rough day on Tuesday. Corn up 2, beans up 4 and wheat up 12. Nothing in the way of new market news, the bounce seems to be a technical bounce after the sell off yesterday. It seems beans will have a hard time mounting much of a rally. There is trade talk that ending stocks next summer could be 1 billion bushels. This will weigh on futures and basis for sometime to come.

A slow close to the market today. No new news this afternoon corn closed unchanged, beans up 3 and wheat 17.

August 17th, 2018 Commentary by Andrew

Grain are mixed this morning to close out the week. Corn up a half cent, beans down 3 and wheat strong up 14. A lot of rumors going around the trade that has made things volatile.  Today’s rumor is that Russia is considering limiting wheat exports. This was quickly dismissed by authorities but it still has wheat trading higher. The wheat market seems to be dragging the corn along with it. Next week the Pro Farmer will start and could give the market some direction.  Locally a nice rains are being reported although it is spotty. Reports of just a couple tenths to over 1 inch in the area.

September corn:  First support at $3.56 ½, then $3.52 ¼.  First resistance at $3.65 ½, then $3.70 – $3.74 ¼.  December corn: support at $3.74 ¾, then $3.70. Short term resistance at $3.79 ¾, then $3.88 ½.  November soybeans: first support at $8.89 ½, then $8.50. Short term resistance was taken out yesterday, putting next resistance at $9.00, then $9.14 ½ to $9.22 ¼.

Corn and beans traded lower most of the day but ended up coming back some due to a report that the US and China are moving to resolve the trade dispute by a multilateral summit in November. The first step is the meeting in DC in a week. Corn ended down 1, beans 4 and wheat up 17.

August 16th, 2018 Commentary by Andrew

Markets up strong on  the overnight after news that the trade talks with China/US will resume. Corn up 3, beans up 15 and wheat up 8. Trade talks will start over at a low level. China will send a delegation led by its Vice Commerce Minister this month at the invitation of the US. This is the first official exchanges since the negotiations broke down two months ago. Weather forecast look favorable for corn and bean as the long range forecast show below normal temperatures with plenty of rain chances.

August 15th, 2018 Commentary by Andrew

Grain markets are weaker this morning after a strong day on Tuesday. Corn down 2, beans down 8 and wheat down 5. Weakness today is being attributed to widespread rain forecast across the corn belt for the next 7 days. The rain pattern across the US continues to point toward beneficial rain for the soybean crop. Maybe it is possible that we will have a record bean yield that the USDA posted last Friday. Otherwise not much in the way of fresh market news to drive the markets one way or another.

On the day corn closed down 1, beans down 11 and wheat down 9. Rain and cooler temps in the US 6-10 day forecast, higher US dollar, big Brazilian crop estimates for 2018/2019, and fund selling combined for lower markets today.  Country selling was minimal.  Midwest Crop Tour begins Monday.

September corn:  First support at $3.56 ½, then $3.52 ¼.  First resistance at $3.63, then $3.65 ½.

December corn: support at $3.70 ½, then $3.65. Short term resistance at $3.79 ¾, $3.88 ½.

November soybeans: first support at $8.50, then $8.26 ¼. Short term resistance at $8.85 ½, then $8.89 ½ to $8.96 ½.

August 8, 2018 Commentary by Andrew

Markets starting stronger this morning. Corn up 1, beans up 4 and wheat up 4. August WASDE will be released at 11:00 am CT on Friday.  Since July 13th, CZ has closed higher 14 out of the last 17 trading sessions; SX has closed higher 12 out of the last 17 sessions. Nothing really in the way of new news. The market seems to be treading water waiting for the report.

September corn:  First support at $3.66 ½, then $3.64, $3.57.  First resistance at $3.75, then $3.84, target $3.93 ¼.  December corn: next support at $3.80 ¾. First resistance at $3.88 ½, then $3.93 – $3.95 ½.  November soybeans: close support at $8.94 ½, the 10-day MA, gap from $8.93 ½ to $8.96, then $8.75. Resistance at  $9.14, then $9.22 ¾ – $9.23.

 

August 1, 2018 Commentary by Andrew

Corn down 2, beans down 13 and wheat up 8 to start the day today.The talk of defusing the trade war with China and the US seemed to have little substance from yesterday. This has the markets on the defensive this morning.  Wheat is pushing higher due to hot and dry conditions in Europe. Temperatures in the US are approaching more normal levels in the 7 to 14 day outlook. The ridge of high pressure seems to be falling apart.

Markets finished the day lower across the board with the exception of wheat. Corn down 7, beans down 17 and wheat up 5. Not much fresh news just more pressure from the tariff talk.

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