Posts By: Ashton Ragsdale

June 21st, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Friday and summer! Two great words! Corn started higher overnight, but has since retreated into the red. Beans were mixed to start last night and then favored the downside, doing nothing to extend yesterday’s key reversal higher, but so far staying above the 200-day MA of 907.

While wet weather is expected across the Midwest through the weekend, but the 11-15 day maps show mostly dry weather. Warmer temps are forecast for next week. Reports of late planting in the north eastern U.S. continue to circulate.

Geopolitical concerns continue as U.S. and Iran relations remain strained after Iran’s recent attack on a U.S. drone. Strikes were ordered by the U.S. yesterday but not carried out. Talks are expected.

At 10:54 am CT it will be officially summer! Today is the longest day of the year in terms of daylight.

Have a great and safe weekend!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 4 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 12 ½ carry.

Afternoon Update:
No major headlines to run the show today with the exception of option expiration.
Weather forecasts for crop development are perceived as improving, but we have to get through rain forecasts for next week before we hit the warmer, drier forecasts.
Prices took a dive into the close, testing the resolve of the 440 CN and 900 SN option strikes. Soybeans traded within yesterday’s range, corn held above yesterday’s low.

June 19th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Two-sided overnight trade in corn while soybeans and wheat gapped slightly lower from Tuesday’s close. Corn and soybeans traded within the lower half yesterday’s range, while wheats set new lows for the week. Fund buying seems to have stalled with funds heavy sellers in corn yesterday.

Rains are moving across the major growing areas. Moisture continues to slow field work, while others welcome the moisture.

Pres. Trump is optimistic a deal with China will be made. Low level discussions are beginning today and both presidents will meet at the G20 summit June 28-29 in Japan. The Fed’s meeting concludes today. The trade will be looking for indications about when rate cuts may be coming.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 5 ½ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry.

July corn: Next resistance 469 and beyond. First support at 424 ¼.
December corn: Next resistance at the contract high at 473. Short term support at 454.
July soybeans: Next resistance 925 ¾ – 931 ½. Next support at 864 ½
November soybeans: next resistance at 940 ¼, then 946 ½ to 960-970. Support at 888.


June 18th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybeans and wheat are lower are prices take a breather after the recent rally. Funds will continue to dictate price action.

Weather patterns next week are warmer than average with the 6-10 day forecast showing above normal precipitation for the Corn Belt with the wettest areas in eastern KS, MO, central and southern IL, IN, and OH. How many more soybeans acres will get planted if this forecast proves accurate?

MFP 2 details coming in about two weeks, details look murky.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads: 
Corn: 6 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

June 17th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybeans and wheat are higher this morning as wet weather continues to wreak havoc in the major growing areas. Funds continue to support prices ahead of weekly export inspections and crop progress and conditions.

The wet weekend raises concerns some intended soybean acres won’t get planted. The wettest areas were eastern IA, IL, southern IN, OH, eastern OK and eastern TX. The 6-10 day forecast for central and southern Midwest stays wet.

U.S./China trade talks on the back burning. Wilbur Ross said over the weekend “ “I think the most that will come out of the G20 might be an agreement to actively resume talks,” MFP 2 details coming in about two weeks.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 3 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry. 

June 14th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Friday! Corn, soybeans and wheat are trading higher as weather woes continue to slow planting and delay growth. Funds continue to support prices as we move towards summer.

Forecasts are still wet and cool, especially for MO, IL, IN, and OH, and the southern Midwest. This is causing concern over getting in the last of the soybeans and early development of all the crops.

The trade war with China continues with no end in sight. Looks like there is credence to chatter that China has asked US exporters to delay 2 mmt of July soybean shipments until August, citing limited storage availability, according to a Reuters report.

Have a great and safe weekend!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 3 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry. 

July corn: New contract high at 448 ½. Next resistance 469.
December corn: New contract high overnight at 459 ½. Next resistance 479, but no real reason it will stop there.
July soybeans: Resistance at 896 ½, then the 900-908 area, then 931 ½. Next support at 864 ¾.
November soybeans: Resistance at the 100-day MA at 917 was taken out overnight putting next resistance at 921 ¼, then 940 ¼.

June 13th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Two-sided trading was seen overnight with everything leaning higher into the coffee break. December corn matched the contract high at 454 this morning, but July corn was the leader higher overnight. Spreads continue to narrow as the market rallies.

Wet weather, delays in planting and stunted crop progress continues to support higher prices. The 6-10 day forecast still looks wet and cool for the Midwest and northern Plains.

On an unrelated but interesting note, Tyson Foods unveiled plant-based nuggets. The flexitarian diet is a style of eating that encourages mostly plant-based foods while allowing meat and other animal products in moderation.

Have a great day! Keep safety a priority.

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 6 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

July corn: support at the 404 ¾ – 407 gap. Longer term support at 387. Next resistance at 438.
December corn: Short term support at the 420 – 422 ½ gap. Longer term support 405. First resistance at the contract high at 454.
July soybeans: Next support at 853 ¼, then the gap from 831 ½ – 837 ½. Longer term support 817. Resistance at 894 ½.
November soybeans: Support at 878, then the gap from 858 – 864 ½, then 843. Resistance at 917 ½ – 921 ¼.

June 12th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Two-sided trade overnight in post report trading. Prices were making a comeback going into the morning break.

The USDA says they will revise US soybean acreage and yield on the July report after making adjustments to the corn on yesterday’s report.

Weather forecasts for cool and wet conditions are not very conducive to rapid/catch-up development. Over the next week, heavy rain is predicted for IL, IN, and OH.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ½ carry.
Soybeans: 14 carry.

July corn: support at the 404 ¾ – 407 gap. Longer term support at 387. Next resistance at 438.
December corn: Short term support at the 420 – 422 ½ gap. Longer term support 405. First resistance at the contract high at 454.
July soybeans: Next support at 851 ½, then the gap from 831 ½ – 837 ½. Longer term support 817. Resistance at 889, 894 ½.
November soybeans: Support at 878, then the gap from 858 – 864 ½, then 843. Resistance at 898.

June 11th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Report Day! Soybean market was back to nearly unchanged by the coffee break, but corn and wheat remained under pressure. Corn, beans, and wheat all traded within yesterday’s ranges in the overnight session. Now we wait for the WASDE report at 11:00 am CT.

Looking ahead, it still looks wet and cool for any more planting and development. The eastern belt still has a wet, cool pattern for the next 10 days. The wettest areas favor MO, IL, IN, and OH. Hearing after Thursday the Indiana farmer will be done with planting, just too late and wet.

Details on MFP 2 still in the works. Trump and Purdue in Iowa today taking a tour of an ethanol plant. Any news will be seen as supportive to agriculture.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

July corn: support at the 404 ¾ – 407 gap. Next resistance now at 422 – 425 ¼, then 436.
December corn: Short term support at the 420 -422 ½ gap. Longer term support 405. First resistance at 444. Maybe resistance every dime higher, but nothing stands out.
July soybeans: Next support at 848 ¾, then the gap from 831 ½ – 837 ½. Longer term support 817. Resistance at 866 ½.
November soybeans: Support at 875, then the gap from 858 – 864 ½, then 843. Resistance at 910-921 ¼, then 940 ¼.

June 10th Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybean and wheat markets are lower on improving conditions, planting progress and no deal with China.

More rain is in the forecast for Tues-Thurs across the Midwest, with cooler temps. The next 10 days also see some rain with mild temperatures. The 6-10 day maps are below – look cool and still fairly wet.

President Trump announced late Friday that he will “indefinitely suspend” the proposed 5% tariff on Mexican imports after Mexico agreed to take “strong measures” to stop illegal immigration into the US.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry.

June 7th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! After a higher start, corn, beans, and winter wheats have retreated into negative territory.

More rain in the 6-10 day forecast for the Midwest with a slightly wetter forecast than yesterday. However, the next 7 days looks drier for soybean planting.

Will Mexico’s move to increase Guatemalan border security be enough to avoid the 5% tariff that’s scheduled to go into effect on Monday? Reportedly, 6,000 National Guard troops will move to the Mexico/Guatemalan border. More negotiations are scheduled for today.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry.

July corn: support at the 404 ¾ gap. Longer term support at 387. Next resistance now at 425 ¼.
December corn: first resistance at 444, then at the contract high at 454. Maybe resistance every dime higher, but nothing stands out.
July soybeans: short term support at 857, then 83 ½. Longer term support 817. Resistance at 894 ½.
November soybeans: Support at 884 ½, then 880 ½. Longer term support at 843. Resistance at 919, then 940 ¼.

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