July 15th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Hope you had a great weekend! Now it’s time to get back to work!

Markets are trading lower this morning after trading higher overnight. Corn gapped higher in overnight trade on hot weather concerns, but has since pulled back to slightly lower levels. After a strong overnight trade, prices are pulling back into the coffee break.

Longer range forecast calling for more mild temperatures into late July. Below average precipitation is seen across much of the central southeastern U.S.

As of last week only 8% of the crop was pollinating, compared to 22% on average. We will get updated crop progress at 3pm CT this afternoon.

Have a great and safe day!

Sept/Dec Spread:
Corn: 6 ½ carry. 
Aug/Sept spread:
Soybeans: 5 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Crop progress: bearish/neutral corn and soybeans. Slightly bullish wheat Corn, soybean and wheat markets are lower across the board. The Chinese economy is seeing an economic slowdown and feed demand is falling due to rampant impact of ASF.  

July 12th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! TGIF. Corn and wheat markets are mixed, soybeans are lower after yesterday rally.

Look for choppy trade to continue as traders decipher unsubstantiated USDA acreage numbers. We know exports and demand will be smaller but the acreage numbers are the wildcard. The USDA lowered the wheat crops in Australia, Russia, and the Ukraine.

Weather patterns into next week remain wet and warm. Heat units are welcome. Tropical Storm Barry is heading toward the Louisiana coast, parts of New Orleans are flooded with more rain on the way. Crop damage is expected to be minimal. 

The USMCA (The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) is expected to be sent to Congress after September 1st to allow the time to gather support for the agreement.

The CFTC COT report will be released at 2:30 PM Central today.

Have a great and safe weekend!

Sept/Dec Spread:
Corn: 3 ¾ carry. 
Aug/Sept spread:
Soybeans: 5 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
The market is back to focusing on weather and the August 12th reports – no one believes the NASS acres with expectations of big changes in future reports. Traders still see BIG PP acres with corn acres too high and beans too low, but we will probably lose some bean acres. Weather is coming back into play and traders main focus / warmer – drier conditions recently have helped the crops but now getting reports that weather is too hot and getting too dry – they want to see some rains. Crop progress and conditions will be released on Monday afternoon.

July 11th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and wheat markets are mostly lower while soybeans are unchanged ahead of the todays reports. Weekly export sales were seen as negative.

USDA’s July WASDE will be released today at 11 am CDT. There is a lot of uncertainty around what the USDA will report so it could be a volatile day.

The US and China have continued negotiations by phone this week as China has introduced some new people to lead the negotiations.

Major oil producers are shutting  down production at many deep water gulf platforms in advance of tropical storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico. Because the lower Mississippi is already near major flood levels, any significant rains puts New Orleans at great risk. The storm is also being watched to see if it will bring rain up to the Midwest.

Have a great and safe day!

Sept/Dec Spread:
Corn: 3 ½ carry.
Aug/Sept spread:
Soybeans: 5 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Corn, soybean and wheat markets rose Thursday in active trade. The markets initially traded lower after the released of the USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports. Prices rose later in the session with wheat leading the way higher.

July 10th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn is trading lower, soybeans and slightly higher and wheat markets are mixed early Wednesday. Look for slow, choppy trade ahead of tomorrows USDA report.

Weather patterns in the U.S. are improving in the short-term aiding development.

White house economic adviser Larry Kudlow said China was expected to move forward with agricultural purchases from the United States as trade talks resumed.

Analyst’s estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report are out. Corn harvested acres have a huge range between 76.2 and 84.3 million acres. Corn yields range between 162 and 167 bpa. Estimates for soybean harvested acres on tomorrow’s WASDE range from 78.1 to 83.2 million. Soybean yields range from 47 to 51 bpa. 

Have a great and safe day!

Sept/Dec Spread: 
Corn: 4 ¾ carry. 
Aug/Sept spread:
Soybeans: 5 ¾ carry.

July 9th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybean and wheat markets are lower this morning is slow trade.

Trade talks are expected to begin this week after recent negotiations stalled between the U.S. and China. The same tensions remain and a solution is not seen in the short term. Concerns of a global economic slow down persist.

Weather patterns remain mostly favorable in the short term for crop development in the U.S. As long as the dryness doesn’t linger, conditions should improve. 

Army worms have been found in the 20th province in China. No damage has been reported yet, but its hard to believe a problem could be this widespread without some kind of negative impact to crop production.

USDA’s July WASDE will be released at 11 am CDT on Thursday July 11th.

Have a great and safe day!

Sept/Dec Spread:
Corn: 4 carry.  
Aug/Sept spread:
Soybeans: 6 carry.

July 8th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Monday! Corn resumed the trend higher in the overnight creating a gap on the Sep through July contracts. The soybean market followed corn higher in the overnight session.

The wet forecasts are gone and the new outlook for the next few weeks looks to have way below normal precipitation and a fair amount of heat. While this forecast for July would typically be wildly bullish, it in reality should be bearish this year. Given that pollination won’t happen until August in many major growing regions, all this forecast does is catch us up on GDDs.

Little news on the U.S.-Chinese trade war.

Export Inspections come out today at 10 am, Crop Progress is out at 3 pm. There is a USDA supply and demand report on Thursday at 11:00 am central time.

Have a great and safe day!

Aug/Sept spread:
Soybeans: 6 ¼ carry.
Sept/Dec Spreads:
Corn: 3 ¼ carry. 

July 3rd, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn is seeing a modest rebound after corn futures failed to fill the chart gap from Memorial Day holiday. Soybeans are also seeing a modest bounce, supported by talk that China may buy beans in a goodwill trade negotiation effort.

The USDA says they will resurvey and possibly incorporate that data on the Aug 12 crop report, meanwhile USDA report next week has many traders trying to outguess the USDA as to what acres number they will use. planted and failed categorization and PP will eventually tell the story, but the planted acres the USDA eventually plants is the important number.

The Upper Mississippi River is now re-opened for navigation past St. Louis. However, tow size limitations remain due to high currents. Weather forecasts seem mostly clear for several days, but rains return late week and into the weekend.

Have a great 4th and be safe!

*Please Note: Grain markets will be closed this Thursday for 4th of July. No night session, with a hard open on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Also, markets will close early at noon on Wednesday. *

Soybean Spreads:
Q/X18 ¾ carry
X/F 11 ½ carry
X/N37 carry

Corn Spreads:
U/Z 6 ½ carry
Z/H 8 carry
Z/K 11 ¾ carry
Z/N 15 ¼ carry

July 2nd, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning!  Further technical selling rolled corn prices even lower on Monday. Dec19 traded into the ‘gap’ left in May [$4.23-$4.20]. Stochastics on the weekly chart had even turned negative. Most fundamental traders still had their jaws on the table, but heads were still shaking all of yesterday. You can ‘intend’ all you want, but at the end of the season, replanting, not planting, and poor stands will add up to less corn production. Seeing a mild bounce overnight. 

Beans couldn’t hold their upside traction from Friday, and slide lower with the rest of the grain markets Monday. SX19 put in an outside lower trade, closing below the 100 day moving average [$9.13] and low range for the session. 

President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on late Monday that trade talks with China had “already begun.” And president also said Iran is “playing with fire.” After they breached the nuclear deal.

According to USDA Undersecretary Bill Northey, farmers unable to plant commodities this year could file more than $1 billion in insurance claims.

Have a great and safe day!

*Please note: Grain markets will be closed this Thursday for 4th of July. No night session, with a hard open on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Also, markets will close early at noon on Wednesday. *

Aug/Sept spread:
Soybeans: 6 ¼ carry.
Sept/Dec Spreads:
Corn: 6 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Corn saw some technical support after the recent sell off while wheat and soybeans finished the session lower in uneventful trade.

July 1st, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! July is here! Corn and wheat markets are lower while soybeans are on the positive side early Monday.

Trade talks between the U.S. and China are expected to resume after this weekend’s G20 meetings. Stocks and energy prices are sharply higher after President’s Trump and XI agree not to impose additional tariffs.

USDA has indicated they will resurvey the Corn Belt acres in July due to the large amount of area that was still intended to be planted when the surveys were conducted in late May-June 17.

Have a great and safe day!

Aug/Sept spread: 
Soybeans: 6 ¼ carry.
Sept/Dec Spread:
Corn: 6 ½ carry. 

Afternoon Update:
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower Monday as weather patterns improve and funds turn into sellers. Traders remain skeptical over the U.S. and Chinese agreement to resume trade talks. Weekly Export Inspections were good for soybeans and corn export were poor. USDA reports May crop at 165.3 million bushels. African Swine Fever still causing havoc and questioning feed demand. 

June 28th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Everybody on board for the USDA reports! Will the acreage report be believed? We will see at 11:00 am CT. On the June report day in the last 10 years: Dec. corn has been lower 5 times, Nov. soybeans lower 6 times, and Chicago Dec. wheat lower 4 times.

Corn and soybeans traded relatively narrow, two-sided ranges overnight, with beans favoring the upside into the break and corn the downside. All were weaker at the break.

The US weather looks non-threatening for the next week.

That’s all I have for the time being- will update after the report. Have a great and safe weekend!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 6 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 11 ¾ carry.

September corn: short term resistance at 452 ½, better resistance at 458 ¼, then 468 ¾. Support 442 ½.
December corn: short term resistance at 458 ¼. Next support at 451.
August soybeans: Resistance at 912 ¾. Support 899 ¾.
November soybeans: Next resistance at 924. Support moves down to 887 ½.

Afternoon Update:
Despite the June 11th WASDE using 89.8 million corn acres and the average trade guess of 86.7 million acres, today’s corn acreage was 91.7 million acres!
To put it in perspective, last year we planted 89.1 million corn acres. So they say we planted 2.6 million more corn acres this year than last year. For soybeans, the report came in at just 80 million acres.
The June 11 WASDE report was 84.6 million and last year we planted 89.2 million soybean acres. So this year we planted 9.2 million less soybean acres than last year?!
Today’s corn acreage number was higher than the highest guess and the soybean number was lower than the lowest guess.
Corn prices went wild on the report’s release, before locking down the 25 cent limit for a time, then recovering. Soybean prices spiked higher on the release, came back down, then moved back into double digit gains.

© 2019 CHS Inc.