November 11th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Veterans day and thank you for all your service protecting our freedoms! Corn, soybean and wheat markets are lower to start the week.

Harvest was steaming ahead over the weekend. USDA reports will be delayed a day this week as government offices are closed today.

Fresh news remains lacking again this AM as a little spill over direction from Friday’s report and no supportive updates out of the trade negotiations. We continue to hear that talks are on going but nothing confirming large increases in sales or a deal to be signed, has added the pressure to the markets.

Expecting a thin and choppy session to remain throughout the day.

Have a great and safe day! Stay warm!

Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 9 ¾ carry. 
Jan/Mar spread:
Soybeans: 12 ¾ carry.

-CZ support at 368 ¼ to 371. Resistance at 384/391 ¾, then the 100-day MA at 398.
-CH support drops to 380 ¾, then 378. Resistance 390 ¾, then 395-400.
-SF support at 920 ½ which is the 50 & 200 day MA, then the 100-day MA 913 ¾. Resistance at 940, then 959 ½.

October 8th,2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Report Day! USDA will be out with their November estimates at 11 AM central time. Overnight trade has been very quiet with moderate to poor numbers noted across most markets. Back and forth choppy trade is expected to continue into the early part of the day session.

Other news this AM the trade is seeing the back and forth headlines with one White House official stating that the US has not agreed on changes for tariffs and only President Trump can make that decision. Other wires showing that another official is “very, very optimistic” that a Phase 1 deal will be signed sooner than later.

Weather forecasts for the US continue the dry and cold pattern over the next two weeks allowing for solid harvest progress, there are delays in a few areas but most will see machinery going full steam ahead.

Have a great and safe weekend! Stay warm!

Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 8 ½ carry.
Jan/Mar spread:
Soybeans: 12 ¼ carry.

-CZ support falls to 368 ¼ to 371. Resistance at 379 ½388/391 ¾then the 200-day MA at 400 ½.
-CH support drops to 380 ¾, then 378. Resistance 390 ¾, then 395-400.
-SF support at 925-919, then 914. Resistance at 941, then 959 ½.

November 7th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Thursday. Headlines of the US and China coming to an agreement on tariffs gave underlying support and strength following yesterday’s weakness, headlines will be watched closely for short term direction but sitting in ranges today until we see what tomorrow’s USDA report numbers have to say.

Weather forecasts here in the US remain favorable for harvest progress in areas of Plains, west and in parts of the central belt. There are delays noted around the north, Great Lakes, south and Delta where coverage has hit but the maps remain with a cool and dry forecast which should allow fields to dry out and progress to resume.

Other fresh news remains lacking. Most in the trade remain close to home and cautious as the know the USDA can bring surprises and will await to see what the numbers before jumping back in. Look for choppy trade as we inch into tomorrow’s report.

Have a great and safe day! Stay warm!

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:  
Corn: 9 carry.  
Jan/Mar spread:
Soybeans: 12 ¾ carry.

-CZ broke below support at the 50-day MA at 379 ¼. Next support near 371. Resistance at 388 ½/391 ¾/397 ¼, then the 200-day MA at 400 ½.   
-CH support at 384 ¾, then 378. Resistance 395-400.
-SF support at 930 was traded through yesterday, next support at 925-921, then 914. Resistance at 941, then 959 ½.

November 6th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! A quiet overnight market as the trade is looking for clearing direction which hopefully will get on Friday or if we can get a deal signed.

Media outlets are reporting that Chinese officials are saying phase 1 is complete and the two parties are moving on towards phase 2. Hard to believe for now, but who knows at this point, if it is true, the market isn’t reacting to it.

US weather is still in a cold pattern and the snow storm that came through the last few days in the upper Midwest is slowing things down, a dryer pattern will hopefully start setting in so at least harvest can continue.

Have a great and safe day!

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 9 carry.
Jan/Mar spread:
Soybeans: 12 ¾ carry

-CZ edging lower toward next support at the 50-day MA at 379. Resistance at 389, 391 ¾, then 397 ¼, then the 200-day MA at 400 ½. Gap from 387 ¾ to 389 ¼.
-CH support 389 ¾, resistance 400.
-SF consolidation. support at 930, then 925-921, then 914. Resistance at 941 ½, then 959 ½.

Afternoon Update:
Corn and soybeans lost ground on trade concerns while wheat markets finished the session mixed. Slow, pre-report trade was seen as recent snows in the northern U.S. stymie harvest.

October 30th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Entering the half way mark of the week but remains the same trade environment. The lack of overall fresh fundamental news or concrete updates on any potential business or deal with China has provided a lack luster and low interest trade. 

Two-sided, mixed trade in corn, two-sided/lower in wheats overnight as once again fresh news is scarce. Soybeans were also two-sided overnight but were holding in the black into the break.

Current conditions here in the states are not favorable for solid field work especially in areas on central and eastern areas as a mixture of snow and rain push through over the next 48 hours. More rains throughout the weekend will hinder progress but the 6 – 10 day maps look to keep a more dry profile allowing for fields to dry out some and activity to resume.

More phone calls are taking place between top negotiators of US and China as they try to get Phase 1 ready for a possible signing in mid-November. Some concern has been raised that China may balk at the US demand they purchase large amounts of US ag products.

Have a great and safe day! Stay dry and warm out there.

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 9 ¼ carry
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 15 ¾ carry.

CZ had a key reversal higher yesterday. Support at the 50-day MA at 377 ¼. Resistance at 389 ½, then the 200-day MA at 401, 100-day MA at 403 ¾.     
SF support at 921 ¼, then 913 ¼. Resistance at 940 ½, then 959 ½.

Afternoon Update:
Corn finished the session higher while soybean and wheat futures closed lower in choppy trade.

October 29th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Relatively narrow, two-sided ranges overnight across the board. Very slow corn harvest limited its downside, but conditions improved. At the break, corn and soybeans were lower, wheats firmer.

Harvest continues to lag and snow are headed across NE, KS, IA and Missouri in the next 24-36 hours.

Some concern growing that the USMCA will not get signed by the end of the year because US politics are getting in the way on finalizing things.

Have a great and safe day! Stay warm out there.

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 10 ½ carry
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 14 ¾ carry. 

**An early reminder, Daylight Savings Time ends this coming Saturday night. Fall back one hour on your clocks before your head hits the pillow that night. Yes, you get that hour of sleep back that you lost in the spring time!

Afternoon Update:

Choppy, low volume day. The Corn Belt’s weather begins to straighten out beginning Friday with a drier pattern, but it may take a couple of extra days for the fields to be dry enough to support harvest. A drier pattern is in the forecast Nov. 1-12.

October 28th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and wheat markets are trading lower while soybeans are higher early Monday. Very little news over the weekend to drive direction. 

Trade reps between the US and Chinese made headway on their conversation this past Friday while on the phone, and the two sides are expected to be close on finalizing some sections of the agreement. 

Rain and snow are expected to slow harvest this week.  Very cold for the upper Midwest this week. Harvest made decent strides in many areas.

Have a great and safe day!

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 11 carry.
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 14 ¼ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Corn and wheat markets finished lower while soybeans rose in orderly trade. Harvest results are confirming lower yields and quality issues. A trade deal is in the works with few details being released.

October 25th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Friday. Corn and soybean markets are lower while wheat futures are higher ahead of the weekend. 

This market continues to need some sort of shot of adrenaline to get things moving upwards again. We’ll see if any ground breaking news comes from the teleconference today

Harvest should make decent progress in most areas over the next few days alleviating some concern. Wet conditions remain and crop quality and size are lower than average.

U.S. trade rep Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu have a phone conference scheduled for later today.   A few a big talking points today will be Beijing asking the U.S. to remove tariffs put in placed on Sept 1st by the U.S. and also on the 15% tariff on Chinese goods that the U.S. will impose on Dec 15th if a deal is not done.

Have a great weekend! Stay safe, stay warm!

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 11 carry.
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

-CZ support at 384, then the 50-day MA at 376 ½, Resistance at the 200-day MA at 401 ¼, 100-day MA at 405 ¼.
-SX support at 934 short term, then 927 ½, then 910. Resistance at the June high at 948, then 957 ½.

October 24th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Choppy overnight session with beans and wheat trading both sides of unchanged while corn opened higher remained just fractionally in the green for the remainder of the night. 

Eastern corn belt is forecasted to get rain over the weekend. Weather models are mixed for the middle of next week. Look for below average temps for the Midwest for the next 10 days.

Market interest remains rather limited as most see prices in ranges for a bit- Overall fresh fundamental news is lacking with traders looking to the headlines for direction.

Have a great and safe day!

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 11 ¾ carry.    
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 14 ¼ carry.

*Reminder: Shipman Elevator’s Lunch in the Grain Line will be taking place on Tuesday, October 29th from 11a-1p. Stop by for lunch on us, delivery also available*

Afternoon Update:
Corn, soybean and wheat markets are lower on poor weekly export sales. Choppy, two sided trade was seen with skepticism over Phase 1 persists.

October 23rd, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn trading slightly lower this morning, nothing for news to trade that would drive things too terribly much. Without any solid news from China and harvest getting fired back up, the bean market is going to feel some pressure.

Keep the horses reined in when it comes to China, they are buying only what they need to at this point. Demand from them is going to limited, that’s old news. This seems to be a common case of keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

Temperatures look to be below average for the next 10 days, early weather models are showing rain and even snow in the forecasts for the upper Midwest for the second half of next week.

Have a great and safe day!

Spreads:
Dec/Mar spread:
Corn: 12 carry
Nov/Jan spread:
Soybeans: 14 ¼ carry

*Reminder: Shipman Elevator’s Lunch in the Grain Line will be taking place on Tuesday, October 29th from 11a-1p. Stop by for lunch on us, delivery also available*

Afternoon Update:
Corn and soybeans finished the session lower while wheat futures rose in lackluster trade. Prices appear to be carving out a range as harvest creeps along.

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