December 14th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! Corn prices remain resilient after sell-offs, but still remains rangebound. China may start buying U.S. corn in January according to news reports. 3mmt has been discussed, but ways to handle tariffs not decided. Lack of follow through soybean purchases from China has the market stumbling, as it mulls how long to remain optimistic for larger quantities.

December 12th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Everything was in the black overnight and leading into the break this morning. President Trump says China is “back in the market” for US soybeans, saying in a Reuters interview, “I just heard today that they’re buying tremendous amounts of soybeans. They are starting, just starting now.” But we’ve seen no sales announcements. 

Afternoon Update:
Headlines at mid-session indicated China had purchased at least 500 tmt of US beans (18.37 million bushels). Other rumors suggested about 2.0 mmt of beans were bought (73.5 million bushels). By that time, beans were well off the day’s high. Corn was just along for the ride, playing the role of follower and barely closed in the positive.

December 11th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning!  Corn, beans, and wheat traded both sides of unchanged overnight with everything higher into the break. Look for quiet, choppy trade ahead of the USDA report at 11:00. Telephone conversations between China and U.S. officials yesterday keep optimism as a supporting factor. On another note, the new Farm Bill is ready for a Congressional vote that may come as early as Thursday  

December 7th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! Corn and wheat markets are higher while soybeans are lower ahead of weekly export sales. We are in a holding pattern until we see further information on the trade war. Have a great and safe weekend!

Spreads:
Corn: H/K 7 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: F/H 12 carry.

Afternoon Update:
Corn was pulled higher by good weekly exports, stronger wheat and bean markets. Talks continue with China, but we have yet to see any purchases. The Huawei CFO (and daughter of the founder) had a bail hearing this morning and reportedly faces extradition to the US. Where does that leave the trade talks?

December 6th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Beans gapped lower overnight from yesterday’s close; corn and wheat traded both sides, but favored the negative. Beans continued to sink leading into the break, pulling corn with it. Beans have closed higher for 4 days in a row. Markets feel uneasy this morning about the Chinese trade deal and SA bean production prospects continue to improve, look for a lower day. On a side note, we probably won’t be seeing the Farm Bill until next week.

Spreads:
Corn: H/K 7 carry
Beans: F/H 12 ½ carry

Afternoon Update:
Lower, but closed off the day’s lows, across the board today. South American weather is favorable and there are questions about what’s going on with China and the US. The current cease-fire between the US and China had doubt cast on what was a rosy outlook to get something done when the CFO of Huawei was arrested in Canada at the request of the US. There have been charges of bypassing sanctions on Iran circulating as the reason for the arrest.

December 5th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and wheat markets are lower while soybean prices are mixed in early trade. Look for a slow choppy day as U.S. financial markets are closed for a national day of mourning.

Spreads:
Corn: H/K 7 carry.
Soybeans: F/H 11 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Slow day as excitement from last weekend’s announcements faded and government offices/markets were closed. We still haven’t seen any Chinese purchases in the ag markets.

December 4th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybean and wheat markets are lower this morning after yesterday’s rally. The market is realizing large production and stocks are fundamentally bearish. Large South American crops and favorable conditions should limit gains. The U.S. and China are a long way from a written resolution. Chinese have not cut tariffs on U.S. soybeans.

Spreads:
Corn: H/K 7 carry
Soybeans: F/H 12 ¼ carry

Afternoon Update:
Corn, soybean markets rose while wheat futures closed mixed volatile trade. Enthusiasm and anticipation of a resolution to the U.S./Chinese trade dispute supported soybeans.

December 3rd, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybean and wheat markets are all higher this morning. Saturday, China and the US agreed to a 90 day truce in their current trade war. The US agreed not to implement an additional 15% tariffs on an additional $267 billion, while China agreed to” buy agricultural products from the US.” However, China has not yet stated they will reduce tariffs on US grains. The tension remains very high as each side attempts to interpret the agreement to suit their needs.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: F/H 12 ¼ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Short-covering and optimism after the Saturday night dinner between President Trump and President Xi kept prices in the black today, but we closed well off the daily highs. Soybeans should get the biggest benefit of an agreement between the two countries, but corn should also get the benefit through DDG’s and ethanol.

November 30th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! Prices were mainly higher across the board overnight in relatively small trading ranges and those gains are being extended after the break. The G20 Summit begins in Buenos Aires, Argentina today. President Trump and President Xi are set to have dinner Saturday night- It could be an agreement to continue to talk, it could be an agreement to hold off on any new tariffs, or it could be nothing. Sunday night action will be interesting. Have a great and safe weekend!

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ¼ carry
Soybeans: F/H 13 ¼ carry

Afternoon Update:
Corn, soybean and wheat markets closed higher Friday on anticipation over positive results at the G-20 meetings.

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