Grain Commentary

Jan 17th Markets have been on a wild ride the last few days. Corn down 12 on Thursday and now up 13 here on Friday. Beans have also erased on gains trading up 7 cents. Funds seem to be covering short positions after they bought the rumor and sold the fact on the China Phase 1 deal.

December 16th,2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Both corn and soybeans are higher leading into the coffee break on the phase one agreement.

Most in the trade believe that the largest purchases will be in hogs following their ASF problems. Soybeans will be next in line.  China will not specify how much or when each product they will be buy as they will not want to show the market their hand.  New tariffs are not being enforced but others will remain in place to make sure that China is living up to their end of the deal.

In the meantime, the trade will be watching closely weather forecasts especially areas in SA.  Argentina received heavy rains over the weekend in their northern regions but areas in the central and southern growing regions missed out again leaving dryness concerns to build for the next 10 days.

Other news is limited and will definitely take a back seat to the Phase 1 deal and any updates on the fine print.

Have a great and safe day- stay warm out there!

-CH first support moves to 377 ¾, then 371 before the contract low at 365 ¾. Resistance moves up to 385 ¾, then the 50-day MA at 389.  
-SF support at 902 ¾, then 889.   Resistance jumps to the 50-day MA at 919, then 924 ½.     

Spreads:
CH/CK carry at 6 ½ cents.
CH/CN carry at 12 cents.
SF/SH at 14 ½ cent carry. 
SF/SN at 40 cents carry.

August 28, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Markets continue to slip/slide along side-ways. No big weather issue. No big demand story surfacing. So setting in for a quiet week.

No needed heat for the Midwest, it stays cool but no signs of frost for the next 10-14 days.

Corn and bean crop ratings improved a bit, so makes it hard for rallies to generate any grab. The next WASDE report is Sept. 12th. We could be sideways until then without some sort of fresh weather or political input.

**Short trading week coming up due to the Labor Day holiday. Friday regular hours and reopen Monday night, September 2nd.**

Have a great and safe day!  

Sept/Dec Spread:
Corn: 8 carry
Sept/Nov spread:
Soybeans: 13 carry

August 9th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! Corn and wheat futures are mixed and soybeans are higher to start the day- corn traded higher overnight in light volume as the market waits for Monday’s report, soybeans continued yesterday’s rally into the overnight session in light volume. Look for a slow day with little movement at this point.

Weather patterns not ideal for soybean growth in many areas due to cool temperatures and excessive moisture. Extended weather forecasts continue to show below average rainfall in much of the Eastern corn belt, which lends support to the grain markets.

The August WASDE report is Monday, August 12th at 11:00 AM Central.

That’s all for now, have a great and safe weekend!

Sept/Dec Spreads:
Corn: 7 ½ carry
Sept/Nov spread:
Soybeans: 12 ½ carry

Afternoon Update:
Corn and wheat futures are mixed and soybeans are higher after a slow, choppy session. USDA monthly Crop Production and S&D update at 11 AM CDT. U.S. and Chinese trade war continues. Weather patterns in the U.S. remain mostly favorable with some dry pockets in the “I” states.

July 1st, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! July is here! Corn and wheat markets are lower while soybeans are on the positive side early Monday.

Trade talks between the U.S. and China are expected to resume after this weekend’s G20 meetings. Stocks and energy prices are sharply higher after President’s Trump and XI agree not to impose additional tariffs.

USDA has indicated they will resurvey the Corn Belt acres in July due to the large amount of area that was still intended to be planted when the surveys were conducted in late May-June 17.

Have a great and safe day!

Aug/Sept spread: 
Soybeans: 6 ¼ carry.
Sept/Dec Spread:
Corn: 6 ½ carry. 

Afternoon Update:
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower Monday as weather patterns improve and funds turn into sellers. Traders remain skeptical over the U.S. and Chinese agreement to resume trade talks. Weekly Export Inspections were good for soybeans and corn export were poor. USDA reports May crop at 165.3 million bushels. African Swine Fever still causing havoc and questioning feed demand. 

May 28th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Prices are higher to start the week! Corn, soybean, and wheat markets are trading higher as weekend rains stall fieldwork and funds continue to buy.

The National weather service is reporting, the U.S. has averaged 36 inches of precipitation over the last 12-months making it the wettest year on record. Rains were seen across much of the Midwest and central U.S. causing flooding in Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 7 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry

May 2nd, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn is lightly mixed this morning  as wet planting conditions remain supportive, while beans are down slightly. Some support for beans could come from rumored trade deals with China, but overall the market is tired of the talk and it may be too little too late for the soy market- time will tell. US river system continues to be totally disrupted with high water, essentially halting grain and fertilizer movement. Have a great day! Stay safe.

*Please note, phone lines in Shipman are currently down. We apologize for the inconvenience. For a grain check, please call Becky at (618) 535-9546. For other assistance, please call the Lowder office at (217) 435-9023.

April 16th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Mostly lower overnight trade across the board with corn gapping slightly lower from yesterday’s close. Two-sided trade was noted everywhere else. US weather forecasts call for 3 more storms in the next couple of weeks over the Midwest, adding concerns about planting, but it’s still early. Rain will benefit wheat in the Plains. Have a great day!

Please note- markets will be closed this Friday in observance of Good Friday. Due to no markets, the grain staff will be out of office.

Spreads:
Corn: K/N 8 ½ carry.
Soybeans: K/N 13 ½ carry.

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