April 6th, 2018 Commentary by Christy

I hope you have buckled your seat belts, this market could be a bumpy ride for a while.  Grains finished strong yesterday corn up 8 and beans up 16.  Only to be knocked down today, corn down 3 and beans down 12.  Late in the day yesterday, President Trump asked US trade officials to consider an additional $100B of Chinese goods on which to impose new tariffs.  Before you break out your tin foil hat consider this:  All of these announcements are PROPOSED tariffs are subject to a comment period.  Nothing has been set in stone yet. President Trump has also asked the USDA for a plan to help protect US farmers from the trade implications. Cash basis jumped up again yesterday in STL, should be an interesting day today- its a Friday, and China will get back from Holiday on Sunday.

Two dates of importance coming up, April 12th the US House Ways and Means Committee will have a hearing to discuss tariffs.  April 10th (Tuesday)  is the next Monthly Supply and Demand Report.

Here are the technicals:

May corn: Resistance at this week’s $3.92 ½ high, support at $3.82, then $3.78.

December corn: Support at $4.04 and $4.00, then $3.95 ¼ to $3.92.  Resistance at $4.12 ½ to $4.16.

May soybeans: blew through support on Wednesday’s tariff news.  First support now at the 200-day MA at $10.02 ½, then $9.79 ¼.  Wednesday’s low was $9.83 ½.  Resistance at the 20-day MA at $10.34, traded as high as $10.33 ¼ Thursday.

November soybeans: crashed through support Wednesday.  Next support at the 200-day MA at $9.94 ¾. The 100-day MA is $10.08.  Resistance at the 50-day MA at $10.23 ¼ was traded through Thursday, leaving $10.45 ¾ as next resistance.

4 o’clock update:  Cash Beans finished up 3 1/2 cents,  corn down only 3/4 of a cent!  We’ll take it!   More snow will keep most farmers out of the field next week if the forecast materializes.  If and when the planting progress reports start to come out (no one seems to know the answer)  those will add to the volatility.  This is the ideal opportunity to have offers in place.  Lately the overnights have seen bigger moves than the day trade and I’m not staying up all night.  🙂  As field work starts and we are already rushing around the weather’s schedule, please be safe! Have a good weekend!


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