November 8th, 2018 Commentary by Ashton

It’s all about the USDA numbers today. Weekly export sales were mostly a yawner. Two-sided trading was seen overnight, with everything in the black at the break. Basis levels continue to firm, rail and barge freight continues to fall. Hearing chatter that some ethanol plants will begin to slow down due to negative margins.

Spreads:
Corn: Z/H 11 ½ carry.
Soybeans: X/F 11 ¾ carry.

Afternoon Update:
Today’s price action shut off any small trickle of farmer sales that were occurring. The huge change in world corn ending stocks was definitely the surprise today. The increase in world corn stocks came from China with their stocks going from 58.5 mmt last month to 207.5 mmt this month. Not expecting corn to plummet from here, but more likely we consolidate. The bean numbers were bearish on their face and we could continue to see the lower trend be extended, barring any political change. Prices rebounded from their lows into positive territory in post-report trading as selling dried up. What this means for tomorrow, remains unseen.

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