October 10th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Two-sided to lower trade was seen early in the overnight session, but prices recovered on news China may be in for more soybeans and on the winter weather moving in.

Freezing temps and possible heavy snow Friday – Sunday is in the forecast for ND, SD, NE, southwestern MN, and western IA. Heaviest snow of 1-3 feet may hit central/eastern ND. It’s estimated that 14% of the US corn crop may be damaged and 5% of the soybean crop may experience freeze damage. Growers are pushing to get at least something harvested before the weather moves in, focusing on beans.

The Financial Times is reporting China is offering to increase their annual purchase of US soybeans from 20 mmt to 30 mmt ahead of the trade talks that begin on Thursday. If no deal is reached, the US is scheduled to increase tariffs on some Chinese goods on October 15th. Talks are scheduled for Thursday/Friday.

October WASDE report will be released tomorrow October 10th at 11:00 am CT.

Have a great and safe day!

Spreads:
Dec/Mar:
Corn: 10 ¾ carry
Nov/Jan:
Soybeans: 14 ¾ carry

CZ support at 383 ¾, then the 50-day MA at 380. Resistance at the 200-day MA at 401 ¾, 100-day MA at 409 ½, then 424 ½.
SX key reversal higher yesterday. Short term support at the 200-day MA at 910 ½, then 900, 891 ½. Resistance at 924 was taken out today moving resistance to 936 ½, then 948. 

Afternoon Update:
Corn closed lower, wheat markets were mixed and soybeans rose in prevent trade. China and the U.S. resume trade talks tomorrow. Early in the day expectations were favorable but later in the day expectations were lowered causing prices to give back earlier gains.

© 2019 CHS Inc.