June 7th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! After a higher start, corn, beans, and winter wheats have retreated into negative territory.

More rain in the 6-10 day forecast for the Midwest with a slightly wetter forecast than yesterday. However, the next 7 days looks drier for soybean planting.

Will Mexico’s move to increase Guatemalan border security be enough to avoid the 5% tariff that’s scheduled to go into effect on Monday? Reportedly, 6,000 National Guard troops will move to the Mexico/Guatemalan border. More negotiations are scheduled for today.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry.

July corn: support at the 404 ¾ gap. Longer term support at 387. Next resistance now at 425 ¼.
December corn: first resistance at 444, then at the contract high at 454. Maybe resistance every dime higher, but nothing stands out.
July soybeans: short term support at 857, then 83 ½. Longer term support 817. Resistance at 894 ½.
November soybeans: Support at 884 ½, then 880 ½. Longer term support at 843. Resistance at 919, then 940 ¼.

June 6th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybeans and wheat markets are trading lower on improving weather and planting progress. Corn planting is expected to be 80%-85% complete by Monday.

President Trump told reporters that tariffs on China could be raised by $300 billion. Mexico import tax of 5% begins on Monday. Talks with Mexico continue.

The 6-15 day forecast for the central and northern U.S. looks cool. Drought coverage increased over the past week, with 5.28% of the contiguous U.S. now in drought, compared to 3.31% last week.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads: 
Corn: 9 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

Ready for Change

By Annette Bertelsen, from Spring 2019 C magazine

What happens when the world’s biggest buyer suddenly backs away from U.S. soybeans? That’s been a question on everyone’s mind since July 6, 2018, when the United States implemented China-specific tariffs. The move embroiled U.S. farmers and cooperatives in a trade war that hit the soybean world particularly hard. Spring USDA data shows 2018–2019 soybean export inspections down nearly 34 percent from the year before, with farms and cooperatives struggling to handle huge carryover and reduced cash flow.

(more…)

June 5th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Wednesday! Corn, soybeans and wheat markets are lower on improving weather and trade concerns. Weather forecasts looking a little better for next week, negativity due to Mexican issue and weakness in wheat all contributing factors. Could just be time to take a break and see where we are.

Next week looks drier for the central Midwest. More rain today and through the weekend in the eastern belt. It’s been since October that Indianapolis has had 5 clear days in a row, according to a local forecaster. Their corn basis continues to strengthen.

The VP and Secretary of State are meeting with Mexican officials to address the migrant crisis. President Trump stated on Twitter he is not “bluffing” and will impose a 5% tax on imports starting Monday if Mexico does not taking appropriate measures to stop the flow of migrants coming into the U.S. through Mexico. Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. wheat, corn and dairy. On a side note Mexico is the biggest exporter of beer.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads: Corn: 9 ¼ carry. Soybeans: 14 carry.

July corn: short term support at 418, then at 410. Next resistance now at 438.
December corn: contract high at 454 is first resistance. Maybe resistance every dime higher, but nothing stands out.
July soybeans: short term support at 874-870, then 858 ¼ – 863. Resistance at 901-908, then 931.
November soybeans: Short term support at 901, then at 893. Longer term support at 843. Resistance at 920 ½.

June 4th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and soybean are trading higher on planting delays while wheat prices are on the defensive as conditions and planting improve.

The southern Midwest is expected to get more rain in 5-6 days out of the next 10 days. For the north and central Midwest, rain is expected in 3-4 days out of the next 10 days.

In a new wrinkle, USDA Sec. Perdue hopes to have an answer by the end of the week whether an MFP payment will be made on prevent plant acres. This adds to the factors growers must consider on deciding whether or not to plant.

Mexico says it will pursue a diplomatic solution in response to the US proposed 5% tariff on Mexican imports due to take effect June 10th.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 9 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 14 carry.

Afternoon Update:
Corn and soybean are finished the session higher on planting delays while wheat prices closed lower on improving conditions and planting progress. Funds and weather will continue to dictate price action as we move into June.

July corn: short term support at 418, then at 410. Next resistance now at 438, then the contract high at 445.
December corn: contract high at 454 is first resistance. Maybe resistance every dime higher, but nothing stands out.

July soybeans: short term support at 874, then 858 ¼, then 832 ½. Resistance at 901-908, then 931.
November soybeans: Short term support at 901, then at 893, then 884 ½. Resistance at 920 ½, then 940 ¼.

June 3rd, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Hope you had a great weekend! Two-sided overnight trading in corn and soybeans, while wheats are sharply higher.

Rain was seen over the weekend, but there were drier areas also. Rain returns Tuesday for the central and southern Midwest. The 15 day outlook is cooler and drier than what it was on Friday. Levees breached in Burlington, IA over the weekend, as well as some along the MO River. Weekend rain in KS and OK keeps yield and quality a real concern.

Mexico’s Economy Minister meets with the US Commerce Secretary today to discuss the 5% tariff on Mexican imports scheduled to take effect June 10th. Mexico has said they will not retaliate until after they talk with the US. This comes at a time the US is trying to pass the US-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA). The US exports more to Mexico than to China, Japan, and South Korea combined.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 9 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

May 31st, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! Corn, soybeans, and wheat markets are lower on trade concerns as President Trump is threatening to tariff on all Mexican imports. Mexico is our largest trading partner and the largest buyer of US corn and wheat. Mexico said the tariffs would not go unanswered, but also heard they said they won’t retaliate. There’s no measurement on how Mexico will satisfy the US.

6-10 day maps are wet for the southern Midwest (IL, IN, OH), southern Plains and the Delta. Rain is in store this weekend for central and eastern Midwest. There are some limited open windows of dry weather, but by the time it dries out enough to plant, it looks like rain returns.

A crazy week for the markets.. For the week: July corn +32, July soybeans +59 ¼.

Have a great and safe weekend!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 9 carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

May 29th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Here we go again! The great weather rally of 2019 continues! Corn, soybean, and wheat markets are higher on bullish planting progress numbers and fund buying. One caution – watch forecasts that may suggest clearer weather coming, but for now the uptrend is strong.

Too wet across the US Midwest, but it’s dry in the southeast. Over the next 10 days, the western belt may get a little reprieve, but the eastern belt is still forecast to get above normal rainfall. Flooding is slowing grain movement on the Illinois and Mississippi rivers.

Corn planting only 58% complete in the US, the slowest on record, vs. 90% average and 63% estimated. Suggests 39 million corn acres left to plant. Bean planting is just 29% complete vs. 66% average and 31% estimated.

Trade war continues with the Chinese, China may hit back at U.S. with a ban on rare earth exports, a group of 17 chemical elements used in high tech products.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 9 ¼ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¼ carry.

May 28th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Prices are higher to start the week! Corn, soybean, and wheat markets are trading higher as weekend rains stall fieldwork and funds continue to buy.

The National weather service is reporting, the U.S. has averaged 36 inches of precipitation over the last 12-months making it the wettest year on record. Rains were seen across much of the Midwest and central U.S. causing flooding in Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 7 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry

May 24th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, soybean, and wheat markets are higher early Friday as wet weather continues to slow field work and the market digest MFP details.

Weather forecast still calls for rain over the Midwest, further delaying planting. Above normal rain is forecasted for the next 15 days.

Senate clears $19.1 billion disaster aid package including ag funding. The House is expected to act today. The bill includes an additional $4.6 billion to reimburse farmers for lost crops and livestock, and go toward rural rebuilding after floods and storms.

Have a great long weekend! Grain and oilseed markets are closed Sunday PM and Monday during the day to observe Memorial Day.

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 9 carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¾ carry.

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