May 23rd, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn and wheat markets are higher as planting delays and Funds continue to buy back short positions. Soybeans are lower as the trade dispute continues with between the U.S. and China.

Any trade talk has been pushed to page 2 as weather and the aid package dominate the news. The USDA is expected to announce some details on a $16 billion market Facilitation Program (MFP 2) today. It’s rumored to include direct farmer payment, commodity purchases, and market development funding. Hoping to get some clarity on what payments will be based on. The first payment could come as soon as the end of July. The USDA has stated they don’t want the program to skew this year’s planting decisions.

The main headline continues to be the continuing wet weather. Forecasts see rain today and tomorrow, clear for a couple of days, then rain moves back in.

**After the markets close tomorrow, they don’t reopen until Monday night in observance of Memorial Day.**

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 9 carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry.

May 22nd, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, wheat and soybean futures are seeing a set back after the recent rally.

Wet weather is expected to continue into Friday. Warmer temperatures and drier weather is forecast Sat-Mon. 

Producers should consider hedging some new crop corn. Trade war with China continues and U.S. and world stocks remain robust.

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ½ carry.

May 21st, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! The rally of 2019 continues. Corn, wheat and soybean markets are trading higher this morning on planting delays and short covering. Weather patterns remain wet into the end of the month with PP acreage estimates increasing on a daily basis. Forecasts are still very wet for the western corn belt. Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 7 ½ carry.
Soybeans: 13 ¼ carry.

May 20th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, wheat and soybeans are higher this morning. Once you get past the weather, most of the factors affecting market direction are just window dressing for now.

Weekend forecasts proved accurate, pushing planters out of the field. Further planting delays are ahead.

Trade chatter is we could see details this week on the next aid package for farmers – what the payment it will based on, what payment levels will be (rumors of $2 for beans and a dime for corn).

Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 7 carry.
Soybeans: 12 ¾ carry.

May 17th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! What a difference from Monday morning. Beans are weaker on trade war shadows and the prospect for additional acres. More rain in the forecast pushing corn as December corn hit $4.00 overnight. Corn is set to post its biggest one week gain since 2015. Corn is up 7.7% in just four days. It’s closed higher every day this week.

Can’t get corn planted or concerned about lower yield – do you go to beans or prevent plant? Too late for beans – prevent plant? Prevent plant dates will be here soon.

There’s been some reported comments from China saying if the US didn’t show sincerity in resolving the dispute or take concrete action, there wasn’t any reason for the US to go to China for further discussions.

Have a great and safe weekend!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 7 ½ carry.
Soybeans: 12 ½ carry.

May 16th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Prices are higher this morning as fund short covering continues and wet weather in the U.S. continue to slow field work. The Chinese are preparing to travel to the U.S. for consultations on trade. Few details are being given on negotiations. Talk of more farm aid in the works due to the trade war. Details remain cloudy. I will keep you posted. Weather patterns remain wet into next week. Early estimates for corn planning on Monday are 42-46% complete. Have a great and safe day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ¾ carry.
Soybeans: 12 ¾ carry.

May 15th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good Morning! July corn is up 17¢ so far this week! Corn, wheat and soybeans are trading higher this morning as planting delays continue in many areas and fund short covering. Yesterday’s rally in beans was the largest 1-day upswing since July 6, 2018.

Wet weather returns this weekend and will be around next week to limit planting progress. It’s all about the weather.

Nothing better or worse to report on Chinese trade situation. IF, a big if, farmers get a payment from the government this year – will it be on production or insurance bushels? If it’s on production, will this change growers planting intentions, i.e. don’t take prevent plant even though it makes sense on paper right now?

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 carry.
Soybeans: 12 ½ carry.

May 14th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

It’s a beautiful morning and markets are higher across the board! U.S. planting delays combined with a decent technical close on Monday caused markets to rally sharply overnight. Maybe it’s time to put some weather premium back in the markets.

Interesting note: usually we have 54 million corn acres planted by this date. This year we have 27.8 million planted acres based on the 92.8 million acre intentions. More talk about prevent plant acres increasing.

Rains return to the western Corn Belt Friday, eastern belt has chances of rain in 5 of the next 10 days. Overall, it stays cool after a couple of warm days this week. Have a great day and stay safe as planting picks up!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ½ carry.
Soybeans: 12 ¾ carry.

May 13th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn, wheat and soybean markets continue to drift lower as planting progresses and the trade war continue to pressure prices. Large U.S. and world supplies are also seen as negative. Ag Sec. Perdue said he’s working on a plan to help farmers that he hopes to give to the President within a few day to a couple of weeks. Dry weather is in the forecast for most of the Corn Belt this week with wetter weather next week. Good progress was being made in the north, but it may still be 1-2 days before the central Midwest goes strong. Have a great day!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 9 ½ carry.
Soybeans: 12 ½ carry.

May 10th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Happy Friday! Corn and soybean markets are lower this morning. Yep, the tariff increase went into effect, no surprise there. Tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods will go from 10% to 25% on goods shipped from today forward. The US is also prepared to put 25% tariffs on another $325 billion worth of goods. 

Drier weather is in the forecast for next week, but when will the farmer be able to get back into the field after this week’s rain? In a lot of places it won’t be until the middle of next week.

It’s tariffs, weather, and WASDE report trading today. Be careful in trying to pick a side. Most attitudes are negative, but tweets and headlines can change things quickly.

Have a great and safe weekend!

July/Sept Spreads:
Corn: 8 ½ carry.
Soybeans: 12 ½ carry.

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