December 20th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! The start of the week brought a good, active trade but the past few sessions have been very quiet and uneventful trades with many stepping back to the sidelines.

Phase 1 news has been supportive and led the rally higher but traders remain cautious and willing to wait to see how things progress and what the fine print brings, some remain sidelined until the deal is signed.

Holiday trade is kicking into effect with traders gone after today for at least a week, many others will remain very close to home awaiting more details.

Have a great and safe day! Stay warm!

Spreads:
Corn:
H/K 6 ¼ carry
H/N 11 ¾ carry
Beans:
F/H 11 ¾ carry
F/N 36 ¾ carry

December 19th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Back and forth we go this AM with minor bounces in the grains while beans are feeling a little pressure on a corrective pull back.

Phase 1 trade deal is the hot topic and will remain that way as we wait for further details and when the signing will happen- in the meantime many will hold tight and remain cautious until concrete answers are available.  It seems that some in the trade will continue to debate how China will be able to purchases $40 billion or more goods in one year from the US if cheaper offers remain in place.

Argentina has gotten some rain relief, but not enough to erase areas of dryness.  Northeastern Brazil remains dry.

Have a great and safe day, stay warm out there.

CH first support at 385, then 378 ½. Resistance at the 100-day MA at 390, then 392 ¼, the 400.   
SF support at 918 ¾, then 912 ½.  Resistance at 940, then 960.     

Spreads:
CH/CK carry at 6 ¾ cents.
CH/CN carry at 12 ½ cents.
SF/SH at 12 ½ cent carry. 
SF/SN carry at 37 ¾ cents. 

December 18th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! The market seems to be taking a breather from the recent rally we have been seeing early this week. Phase 1 optimism slows without details of commodities and quantities involved.

How can China get to $40 billion purchases of US ag products?  Possible options:
-Buy for reserves
-Force Hong Kong purchases into Chinese ports to count against the number before going to Hong Kong.  Currently, Hong Kong is not counted as China.
-Donate purchases to other nations

January report looms on the 10th which should bring estimates of reductions for wheat crops and possible reductions for corn and beans estimates. 

Not much else out there as far as fresh headlines go. Have a great and safe day- stay warm!

CH first support at 385 ¼, 378 ½. Resistance at 390 ½, then 392 ¼, the 400.
SF support at 919, then 912 ½.  Resistance at 940, then 960.     

Spreads:
CH/CK carry into 6 ½ cents.
CH/CN carry at 11 ¾ cents.
SF/SH at 11 ½ cent carry. 
SF/SN narrowed to 37 ¾ cents. 

December 17th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! “Turn Around Tuesday”!  Markets have calmed down some overnight with minor pull backs in grains while beans continued to find moderate bids able to pop futures just slightly into the green.

Phase 1 continues to move forward, headlines this morning that China might start importing U.S. ethanol once again by lifting or waiving tariffs.  The dollar to be imported by the Chinese has been long disputed, ethanol imports would certainly help with this. The U.S. and Mexico resolved a long dispute yesterday after Mexico wasn’t happy with  the new trade deal essentially sending up to 5 labor attaches would be sent to the U.S. embassy in Mexico City. 

Despite there not being any official crop report, it’s estimated there are 300 million bushels of corn still in the field.

Have a great and safe day- stay warm!

-CH first support at 385 ¼, 378 ½. Resistance moves up to 389, then 391, 392 ¼.   
-SF support at 912, 907, 902 ¾.  Resistance at 924 ½, then around 940.   

Spreads:
CH/CK carry at 7 cents.
CH/CN carry at 12 ½ cents.
SF/SH at 13 ½ cent carry.
SF/SN at 39 ¾ cents. 

  

December 16th,2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Both corn and soybeans are higher leading into the coffee break on the phase one agreement.

Most in the trade believe that the largest purchases will be in hogs following their ASF problems. Soybeans will be next in line.  China will not specify how much or when each product they will be buy as they will not want to show the market their hand.  New tariffs are not being enforced but others will remain in place to make sure that China is living up to their end of the deal.

In the meantime, the trade will be watching closely weather forecasts especially areas in SA.  Argentina received heavy rains over the weekend in their northern regions but areas in the central and southern growing regions missed out again leaving dryness concerns to build for the next 10 days.

Other news is limited and will definitely take a back seat to the Phase 1 deal and any updates on the fine print.

Have a great and safe day- stay warm out there!

-CH first support moves to 377 ¾, then 371 before the contract low at 365 ¾. Resistance moves up to 385 ¾, then the 50-day MA at 389.  
-SF support at 902 ¾, then 889.   Resistance jumps to the 50-day MA at 919, then 924 ½.     

Spreads:
CH/CK carry at 6 ½ cents.
CH/CN carry at 12 cents.
SF/SH at 14 ½ cent carry. 
SF/SN at 40 cents carry.

December 12th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn is slightly higher, soybeans are lower and wheat markets are mixed as the holiday mode kicks in full gear.

Will he or won’t he implement the 15% tariff increase on $156 billion worth of Chinese imports on December 15th?  That’s the question. President Trump will be meeting with his trade team today to discuss options moving forward with many around the markets expecting a delay on the tariffs as a good faith move of his own after China’s olive branch on Friday and large sales announced yesterday.

Weather forecasts for the US bring more snow coverage throughout areas in the north. Select acres will see drier conditions over the next 10 days with hard soils allow field work but many areas in the Dakota’s – MN – MI remain well behind at this time of year and can see further delays well into 2020.

Have a great and safe day!

Mar/May spread: 
Corn: 6 ¾ carry.
Jan/Mar spread:
Soybeans: 14 ½ carry.

CH support falls to 366 ½ – 365 ¾. Resistance at 377 ½ on a closing basis, then 384 ¾.  
SF support at 884 ½, then 867 ½, then 865.   Resistance at 907 ½, then 913.   

CHS Inc. owners elect five board members during annual meeting

Portrait of newly and re-elected CHS Board Members

CHS owners elected five board members to three-year terms during the cooperative’s 2019 Annual Meeting held Dec. 5-6 in Minneapolis. Pictured (l. to r.) are: Kevin Throener, Hal Clemesen, Mark Farrell, Alan Holm and Steve Riegel.

Officers of board also elected by board peers following Annual Meeting

CHS owners elected five board members to three-year terms during the cooperative’s 2019 Annual Meeting held Dec. 5-6 in Minneapolis. Newly elected to three-year terms are:

Hal Clemensen succeeds former director Randy Knecht, who retired from the CHS Board of Directors on Dec. 6. Clemensen represents Region 4, covering South Dakota, and has been the president of the board of directors of Agtegra Cooperative since its formation in 2018. He was president of the South Dakota Wheat Growers Association from 2005 until its merger with North Central Farmers Elevator in 2018. He is a past director and is an active member of the South Dakota Soybean Association and an active member of South Dakota Corn Growers. In 2015, the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives named him Farmer Cooperative Director of the year. He raises corn, soybeans and wheat near Conde, South Dakota. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Agricultural Economic and Agricultural Business from South Dakota State University. Clemensen was appointed to the CHS Board’s Government Relations and Corporate Risk committees.

Kevin Throener succeeds former director Dennis Carlson, who retired from the board on Dec. 6, and represents Region 3, which covers North Dakota. Throener has been a director of CHS Dakota Plains Ag since 2014 and served as vice president of the Sargent County Farmers Union Board of Directors since 2007. He has also served on the Cogswell, North Dakota, Volunteer Fire Department since 1997 and was its chief from 2010 to 2018. Throener raises corn, soybeans and alfalfa and operates a feedlot and cow/calf business near Cogswell, North Dakota. Throener and his wife Ronda are first-generation farmers who built their operation from the ground up. He studied Agricultural Systems Management at North Dakota State University. He was appointed to the CHS Board’s Governance Committee and the CHS Foundation Board of Trustees.

Reelected to three-year terms are:

  • Mark Farrell, who operates a corn, soybean and wheat farm in Dane County, Wisconsin, representing Region 5.
  • Alan Holm, who operates a corn, soybean, sweet corn, peas and hay operation and has a cow-calf herd near Sleepy Eye, Minnesota, representing Region 1.
  • Steve Riegel, who raises corn, soybeans, alfalfa, dryland wheat and milo near Ford, Kansas, representing Region 8.

Following the Annual Meeting, the board held its annual re-organization meeting. Each of the following board members was elected to one-year officer terms:

  • Dan Schurr, chair
  • C.J. Blew, first vice chair
  • Jon Erickson, second vice chair
  • Russ Kehl, secretary-treasurer
  • Steve Riegel, assistant secretary-treasurer

December 10th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Corn remains lifeless as it appears the markets don’t seem phased by the amount left unharvested.. that’s nearly a billion bushels left out in fields. Beans started this week higher on hopes of positive export news to China, the USDA report today will continue to carry them upwards- until 11 AM, anyway.

The USDA will be posting their December estimates at 11 AM central time. Many believe that we could be looking a rather uneventful report today as the past December reports have not led to many surprises.

There were no fresh updates on the trade negotiations overnight- looks to be on going with hopes that a deal can be reached in the nearby future but traders are cautious as we are just 5 days away from the 15th and expected tariffs on $156 billion more in goods by President Trump.  Recent good faith moves by the Chinese and indications that they purchased soybeans yesterday may lead Trump to delay/postpone these tariffs in a good faith move of his own.  We have been chasing these headlines for a long time now and with most not willing to risk much to anything until there is dry ink on a deal. 

Weather forecasts for the US will see hindered progress in northern areas but forecasts are leaning drier in the 6 – 10 day which should give way to some melting off and field work to catch up on corn harvest.. Progress was out yesterday evening pegging corn completed at only 92% which was 2% lower than estimates. How long will the final 8% take? Temps are dropping for most areas but keeping to levels just above winter kill threshold. 

Have a great and safe day! Stay warm out there.

CH support at 373, then 366 ½.  Resistance at 378 on a closing basis, then 384 ¾.  
SF support at 883 ½, then 867 ½, then 865.   Resistance at 907 ½, then 913.   

Spreads:
CH/CK carry at 5 ½ cents.
CH/CN carry at 10 ¼ cents.
SF/SH at 14 ½ cent carry. 
SF/SN at 41 cents.

December 9th, 2019 Commentary by Ashton

Good morning! Happy Monday and Report Week! Corn is lower, soybeans are higher ahead of tomorrows USDA report.

Tomorrow the USDA will be out with the December report at 11 AM central time…well we hope its on time. Many in the trade push the December report to the side and look forward to January numbers.  This is a different year but with the continued delays in harvest and many acres still not pulled, one might expect just minor increases or decreases with an overall neutral report- stay tuned though, the past few reports have really thrown us a curve ball..

Positive steps were taken on Friday as the Chinese government removed tariffs in good faith for beans and hogs- will look for strength in these markets to start the week with spill over direction for other markets.  Sunday, December 15th, new tariffs on $156 billion in goods are expected to be put into place but hope remains that a deal can be reached before then. China’s Deputy Commerce stated that Beijing wants a deal ASAP but with Trump being the wild card at times who knows how he will react in the final week before the increase.

Have a great and safe day!

Mar/May spread:
Corn: 5 ¾ carry.
Jan/Mar spread:
Soybeans: 14 3/4 carry.

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