The market is very quiet so far this morning. Maybe the fog is so thick they can’t see to trade! The soybean complex was on fire yesterday due to the sharp increase on old and new crop export projections. The trade was looking for new crop soybean carryout to be around 405 million bushel and it came in at 305. Trade estimate off a staggering 25%!!!! Good soybean prices for now, but as I said yesterday I think soybean acres will increase in the U.S. on the June 30 report by more than 1.5 million. As we head to the break, corn down a penny, soybeans up 2-3 and wheat unchanged. The dollar lower this morning trading down about 340 with crude oil up about $.28. Still rain in our forecast for today and tonight. The eastern belt continues to be wet and cool which has slowed planting and may switch corn to beans in parts of Indiana and Ohio. I find it hard to believe the sharply higher soybean export projections for next year, especially when you know after this strong rally in soybeans, the South American farmer is going to plant beans and is already aggressively making new crop sales.
Weekly ethanol production was up 4.23% compared to last week. Corn ground for ethanol estimated at 101.01 million bushel compared to 98.291 million needed on a weekly basis to meet USDA projections. The dollar now trading down almost 600, but crude oil has turned from lower to sharply higher as oil stocks declined by 3.4 million barrels when the trade was expecting an inventory build. Neither of these factors doing anything for grain as we remain lower across the board at 11:15am. We finished lower across the board today in what was a rare, quiet day for soybeans compared to the trade of recent weeks. July soybeans closed down $.0575 at $10.7825 with November down $.015 at $10.66. The key question now is, was today just one of those we have to be lower once in awhile days or are we ready to start our next cycle low to take us to the end of June? Time will tell, but at least with the strong rally we have seen on beans is has given us a great opportunity to sell new beans and to raise our average price on previous sales. Cash basis levels on soybeans were 5-6 cents weaker today. July corn closed down $.035 at $3.775 with July wheat down $.0225 at $4.59.