Markets started out slightly lower last night but are now trying to stabilize and turn higher. Help coming from a weaker dollar this morning which eases some of the pressure from the dollar’s bounce back this week. I would expect a quiet session today ahead of the planting progress update on Monday and the USDA report next Tuesday. Our first look for new crop corn carryout next Tuesday is expected to be estimated around 2.30 billion bushel. Conab will give us new production estimates next Tuesday on the Brazilian corn and soybean crops. From a technical point, July corn needs to hold the 100 day moving average at $3.74 or we could drop as low as $3.60 to find support. Support at $3.78 for December corn is critical to avoid the corn market from turning negative. It is estimated that the soybean harvest in Argentina is around 40% complete versus 66% last year at this time. The Kansas wheat tour ended yesterday and their wheat crop projected at a whopping 382 million bushel. July soybeans broke below the 10 day moving average yesterday on a key reversal lower. July beans need to hold support at $9.9675 which is the 20 day average.
Early price action after the break this morning has corn trying to lead us higher. USDA announced the sale of 132,000 tons of old crop corn to Israel. Ag Rural lowered the second crop corn (safrinha) production in Brazil by 5.7mmt. Traditional commodity funds are estimated to be long 149,000 soybean contracts, long 46,000 corn and short 68,000 wheat contracts. Latest talk says that the beans that have been harvested in Argentina are actually yielding better than last year. Rumors circulating that China may actually sell some of their soybean reserves. Looks like there is a little something for everyone today! Just when you think your about to pronounce the soybean rally dead, they come storming back. As of 10:40am, July soybeans have gained back all of yesterday’s losses. Corn and wheat still higher but have been stuck in a quiet trade so far. Apparently, those rumors about China selling some of their soybean reserves are being discounted by the trade.
Soybeans stayed strong into the close with July up $.225 at $10.3475 and November up $.205 at $10.22. July corn closed up $.0375 at $3.775 with December up $.0325 at $3.8475. July wheat up $.005 at $4.6375. July wheat just $.1425 above the contract low established on March 2. As of the grain close, the dollar back up over 115 after trading lower this morning. Looks like warmer weather for the weekend so hopefully we get more beans planted. Be safe and we will be back on Monday!