Well, here we are and May is half over. The last three days of last week saw soybeans retreat as traders lightened up on their long positions on ideas that we could see a significant increase on soybean acres on the June 30 report. Soybeans and wheat have already traded both sides with wheat near unchanged and beans currently down 2-3 cents. July corn opened lower and has not been able to get back to unchanged so far. The dollar is down about 65 with crude oil up about a dollar. We will see the USDA’s planting progress update at 3pm this afternoon. It looks like we will have plenty of rain in the forecast over the next 10-15 days so the trade will probably focus on the planting progress in the areas that are behind. Parts of southeastern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are struggling to get corn planted. Some areas to the north saw temperatures as low as 27 degrees over the weekend which may add support to corn. Trade will try to digest whether any damage was done or not from the cold. Corn planting expected to be around 75% complete with soybeans about 35% planted on the update this afternoon. Informa out this morning with their latest thoughts on planting intentions. Funds still very long on soybeans and not quite ready to give up yet, but probably not wanting to add too many contracts. Even though corn rebounded last week and soybeans declined, the soybeans are still the leader in this market.
USDA announced this morning the sale of 128tmt of old crop corn to South Korea. Weather in Argentina looks good for harvest activity. Some rain should fall in the corn region in Brazil. Informa estimates corn acres at 93.4 million versus 93.6 from the USDA. They estimate bean acres at 83.0 million compared to USDA at 82.2 million. Not really anything here for corn or soybeans as neither number varies much from the USDA numbers. Weekly export inspections were strong for corn at 43.7 million bushel, but soybeans at the low end at only 7.2 million. Wheat was 13.5 million bushel.
All commodities bounced off the lows of the day and everything closed unchanged to higher except July soybeans. July beans finished down $.005 at $10.645 with November futures up $.005 at $10.55. July corn made a late surge and closed up $.0325 at $3.94. December corn finished up $.0175 at $4.00. July wheat unchanged at $4.7475. Cash basis levels were weaker on corn and soybeans today. Corn basis 1-2 cents lower with soybean basis 4-5 cents lower. USDA says corn is 75% planted versus 82% last year and an average pace of 70%. Soybeans are 36% planted versus 41% last year and an average pace of 32%. We are now behind last year’s pace but right at trade expectations.